气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sensitivity of a calving glacier to ice-ocean interactions under climate change: New insights from a 3-d full-stokes model

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DOI	10.5194/tc-13-1681-2019
	Sensitivity of a calving glacier to ice-ocean interactions under climate change: New insights from a 3-d full-stokes model
	Todd J.; Christoffersen P.; Zwinger T.; Räback P.; Benn D.I.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19940416
EISSN	13
起始页码	1681
结束页码	1694
卷号	13 期号:6
英文摘要	Iceberg calving accounts for between 30 % and 60 % of net mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has intensified and is now the single largest contributor to global sea level rise in the cryosphere. Changes to calving rates and the dynamics of calving glaciers represent a significant uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A growing body of observational evidence suggests that calving glaciers respond rapidly to regional environmental change, but predictive capacity is limited by the lack of suitable models capable of simulating calving mechanisms realistically. Here, we use a 3-D full-Stokes calving model to investigate the environmental sensitivity of Store Glacier, a large outlet glacier in West Greenland. We focus on two environmental processes: undercutting by submarine melting and buttressing by ice mélange, and our results indicate that Store Glacier is likely to be able to withstand moderate warming perturbations in which the former is increased by 50 % and the latter reduced by 50 %. However, severe perturbation with a doubling of submarine melt rates or a complete loss of ice mélange destabilises the calving front in our model runs. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that stress and fracture patterns at Store's terminus are complex and varied, primarily due to the influence of basal topography. Calving style and environmental sensitivity vary greatly, with propagation of surface crevasses significantly influencing iceberg production in the northern side, whereas basal crevasses dominate in the south. Any future retreat is likely to be initiated in the southern side by a combination of increased submarine melt rates in summer and reduced mélange strength in winter. The lateral variability, as well as the importance of rotational and bending forces at the terminus, underlines the importance of using the 3-D full-Stokes stress solution when modelling Greenland's calving glaciers. © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
学科领域	bending; climate change; cryosphere; fracture flow; iceberg calving; sea ice; sea level change; sea surface topography; snowmelt; Arctic; Greenland; Greenland Ice Sheet; Store Glacier; West Greenland
语种	英语
scopus关键词	bending; climate change; cryosphere; fracture flow; iceberg calving; sea ice; sea level change; sea surface topography; snowmelt; Arctic; Greenland; Greenland Ice Sheet; Store Glacier; West Greenland
来源期刊	The Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118873
作者单位	Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St.Andrews, St.Andrews, United Kingdom; CSC-IT Center for Science, Espoo, Finland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Todd J.,Christoffersen P.,Zwinger T.,et al. Sensitivity of a calving glacier to ice-ocean interactions under climate change: New insights from a 3-d full-stokes model[J],2019,13(6).
APA	Todd J.,Christoffersen P.,Zwinger T.,Räback P.,&Benn D.I..(2019).Sensitivity of a calving glacier to ice-ocean interactions under climate change: New insights from a 3-d full-stokes model.The Cryosphere,13(6).
MLA	Todd J.,et al."Sensitivity of a calving glacier to ice-ocean interactions under climate change: New insights from a 3-d full-stokes model".The Cryosphere 13.6(2019).