气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants

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DOI	10.1111/ele.12443
	The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants
	Petchey O.L.; Pontarp M.; Massie T.M.; Kéfi S.; Ozgul A.; Weilenmann M.; Palamara G.M.; Altermatt F.; Matthews B.; Levine J.M.; Childs D.Z.; Mcgill B.J.; Schaepman M.E.; Schmid B.; Spaak P.; Beckerman A.P.; Pennekamp F.; Pearse I.S.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	1461-023X
EISSN	1461-0248
卷号	18 期号:7
英文摘要	Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development. © 2015 The Authors Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.
英文关键词	Dynamics; Ecosystems; Environmental change; Forecasting; Futures; Prediction; Scenarios
学科领域	abundance; body size; community structure; environmental change; forecasting method; phylogenetics; population distribution; population structure; prediction; research and development; spatiotemporal analysis; temperature effect; uncertainty analysis; ecology; ecosystem; evolution; forecasting; phylogeny; procedures; statistical model; Biological Evolution; Ecology; Ecosystem; Forecasting; Models, Statistical; Phylogeny
语种	英语
scopus关键词	abundance; body size; community structure; environmental change; forecasting method; phylogenetics; population distribution; population structure; prediction; research and development; spatiotemporal analysis; temperature effect; uncertainty analysis; ecology; ecosystem; evolution; forecasting; phylogeny; procedures; statistical model; Biological Evolution; Ecology; Ecosystem; Forecasting; Models, Statistical; Phylogeny
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118711
作者单位	Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, Zurich, CH-8057, Switzerland; Department of Aquatic Ecology, Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Überlandstrasse 133, Dübendorf, 8600, Switzerland; Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Umeå, SE- 901 87, Sweden; Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, CC065, Place Eugène Bataillon, Montpellier Cedex 05, 34095, France; Department of Aquatic Ecology, Center for Ecology, Evolution, and Biogeochemistry, Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Kastanienbaum, Seestrasse 79, Luzern, 6047, Switzerland; Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland; Animal and Plant Sciences, Sheffield University, Western Bank, Sheffield, South Yorkshire, S10 2TN, United Kingdom; School of Biology and Ecology and Mitchel Center for Sustainability Soluti...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Petchey O.L.,Pontarp M.,Massie T.M.,et al. The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants[J],2015,18(7).
APA	Petchey O.L..,Pontarp M..,Massie T.M..,Kéfi S..,Ozgul A..,...&Pearse I.S..(2015).The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants.Ecology Letters,18(7).
MLA	Petchey O.L.,et al."The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants".Ecology Letters 18.7(2015).