气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics

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DOI	10.1111/ele.12599
	Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics
	Mclean N.; Lawson C.R.; Leech D.I.; van de Pol M.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	1461-023X
EISSN	1461-0248
卷号	19 期号:6
英文摘要	Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
英文关键词	Birds; Climate change; Comparative; Demographic rates; Functional traits; Phenology; Population dynamics; Species responses; Trait
学科领域	analytical framework; bird; climate change; comparative study; demography; environmental response; functional role; life history trait; phenotype; population dynamics; population growth; prediction; prioritization; Aves; animal; biological model; bird; climate change; phenotype; physiology; population dynamics; population growth; reproduction; Animals; Birds; Climate Change; Models, Biological; Phenotype; Population Dynamics; Population Growth; Reproduction
语种	英语
scopus关键词	analytical framework; bird; climate change; comparative study; demography; environmental response; functional role; life history trait; phenotype; population dynamics; population growth; prediction; prioritization; Aves; animal; biological model; bird; climate change; phenotype; physiology; population dynamics; population growth; reproduction; Animals; Birds; Climate Change; Models, Biological; Phenotype; Population Dynamics; Population Growth; Reproduction
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118544
作者单位	Division of Evolution, Ecology and Genetics, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Daley Road, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia; Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Droevendaalsesteeg 10, Wageningen, 6708 PB, Netherlands; British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2PU, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mclean N.,Lawson C.R.,Leech D.I.,et al. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics[J],2016,19(6).
APA	Mclean N.,Lawson C.R.,Leech D.I.,&van de Pol M..(2016).Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics.Ecology Letters,19(6).
MLA	Mclean N.,et al."Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics".Ecology Letters 19.6(2016).