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DOI	10.1111/ele.12671
	When can the cause of a population decline be determined?
	Hefley T.J.; Hooten M.B.; Drake J.M.; Russell R.E.; Walsh D.P.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	1461-023X
EISSN	1461-0248
卷号	19 期号:11
英文摘要	Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS
英文关键词	Allee effect; autocorrelation; causal inference; density dependence; extinction; multicollinearity; population dynamics; temporal confounding; time series
学科领域	animal; biological model; computer simulation; Daphnia; ecosystem; physiology; population dynamics; statistical model; time factor; Animals; Computer Simulation; Daphnia; Ecosystem; Logistic Models; Models, Biological; Population Dynamics; Time Factors
语种	英语
scopus关键词	animal; biological model; computer simulation; Daphnia; ecosystem; physiology; population dynamics; statistical model; time factor; Animals; Computer Simulation; Daphnia; Ecosystem; Logistic Models; Models, Biological; Population Dynamics; Time Factors
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118475
作者单位	Department of Statistics and Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Unit, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States; Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center, Madison, WI 80523, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hefley T.J.,Hooten M.B.,Drake J.M.,et al. When can the cause of a population decline be determined?[J],2016,19(11).
APA	Hefley T.J.,Hooten M.B.,Drake J.M.,Russell R.E.,&Walsh D.P..(2016).When can the cause of a population decline be determined?.Ecology Letters,19(11).
MLA	Hefley T.J.,et al."When can the cause of a population decline be determined?".Ecology Letters 19.11(2016).