气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Extrapolating demography with climate, proximity and phylogeny: approach with caution

CCPortal

DOI	10.1111/ele.12691
	Extrapolating demography with climate, proximity and phylogeny: approach with caution
	Coutts S.R.; Salguero-Gómez R.; Csergő A.M.; Buckley Y.M.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	1461-023X
EISSN	1461-0248
卷号	19 期号:12
英文摘要	Plant population responses are key to understanding the effects of threats such as climate change and invasions. However, we lack demographic data for most species, and the data we have are often geographically aggregated. We determined to what extent existing data can be extrapolated to predict population performance across larger sets of species and spatial areas. We used 550 matrix models, across 210 species, sourced from the COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database, to model how climate, geographic proximity and phylogeny predicted population performance. Models including only geographic proximity and phylogeny explained 5–40% of the variation in four key metrics of population performance. However, there was poor extrapolation between species and extrapolation was limited to geographic scales smaller than those at which landscape scale threats typically occur. Thus, demographic information should only be extrapolated with caution. Capturing demography at scales relevant to landscape level threats will require more geographically extensive sampling. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS
英文关键词	COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database; comparative demography; damping ratio; elasticity; matrix population model; phylogenetic analysis; population growth rate (λ); spatially lagged models
学科领域	classification; climate; demography; ecosystem; factual database; genetics; phylogeny; plant; plant physiology; species difference; statistical model; Climate; Databases, Factual; Demography; Ecosystem; Models, Statistical; Phylogeny; Plant Physiological Phenomena; Plants; Species Specificity
语种	英语
scopus关键词	classification; climate; demography; ecosystem; factual database; genetics; phylogeny; plant; plant physiology; species difference; statistical model; Climate; Databases, Factual; Demography; Ecosystem; Models, Statistical; Phylogeny; Plant Physiological Phenomena; Plants; Species Specificity
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118467
作者单位	School of Biological Sciences, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia; Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, United Kingdom; School of Natural Sciences, Zoology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland; Evolutionary Demography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Coutts S.R.,Salguero-Gómez R.,Csergő A.M.,et al. Extrapolating demography with climate, proximity and phylogeny: approach with caution[J],2016,19(12).
APA	Coutts S.R.,Salguero-Gómez R.,Csergő A.M.,&Buckley Y.M..(2016).Extrapolating demography with climate, proximity and phylogeny: approach with caution.Ecology Letters,19(12).
MLA	Coutts S.R.,et al."Extrapolating demography with climate, proximity and phylogeny: approach with caution".Ecology Letters 19.12(2016).