气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change

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DOI	10.1111/ele.12696
	Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change
	Bush A.; Mokany K.; Catullo R.; Hoffmann A.; Kellermann V.; Sgrò C.; McEvey S.; Ferrier S.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	1461-023X
EISSN	1461-0248
卷号	19 期号:12
英文摘要	Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS
英文关键词	Drosophila; niche model; phenotypic plasticity; physiological tolerances; thermal tolerance
学科领域	Drosophilidae; adaptation; animal; animal dispersal; Australia; biological model; climate change; Drosophila; evolution; genetics; physiology; reproductive fitness; species difference; Adaptation, Physiological; Animal Distribution; Animals; Australia; Biological Evolution; Climate Change; Drosophila; Genetic Fitness; Models, Biological; Species Specificity
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Drosophilidae; adaptation; animal; animal dispersal; Australia; biological model; climate change; Drosophila; evolution; genetics; physiology; reproductive fitness; species difference; Adaptation, Physiological; Animal Distribution; Animals; Australia; Biological Evolution; Climate Change; Drosophila; Genetic Fitness; Models, Biological; Species Specificity
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118456
作者单位	CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia; Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia; School of Science and Health, Western Sydney University, Australia; Melbourne University, Melbourne, Australia; Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Australian Museum, Sydney, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bush A.,Mokany K.,Catullo R.,et al. Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change[J],2016,19(12).
APA	Bush A..,Mokany K..,Catullo R..,Hoffmann A..,Kellermann V..,...&Ferrier S..(2016).Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change.Ecology Letters,19(12).
MLA	Bush A.,et al."Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change".Ecology Letters 19.12(2016).