气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predictability in community dynamics

CCPortal

DOI	10.1111/ele.12736
	Predictability in community dynamics
	Blonder B.; Moulton D.E.; Blois J.; Enquist B.J.; Graae B.J.; Macias-Fauria M.; McGill B.; Nogué S.; Ordonez A.; Sandel B.; Svenning J.-C.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	1461-023X
EISSN	1461-0248
卷号	20 期号:3
英文摘要	The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS
英文关键词	Alternate states; chaos; climate change; community assembly; community climate; community response diagram; disequilibrium; hysteresis; lag; memory effects
学科领域	analytical method; chaotic dynamics; climate change; community composition; community response; diagram; disequilibrium; ecophysiology; hysteresis; population distribution; reconstruction; biological model; biota; climate change; ecology; population dynamics; procedures; Biota; Climate Change; Ecology; Models, Biological; Population Dynamics
语种	英语
scopus关键词	analytical method; chaotic dynamics; climate change; community composition; community response; diagram; disequilibrium; ecophysiology; hysteresis; population distribution; reconstruction; biological model; biota; climate change; ecology; population dynamics; procedures; Biota; Climate Change; Ecology; Models, Biological; Population Dynamics
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118419
作者单位	Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, N-7491, Norway; Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, United Kingdom; School of Natural Sciences, University of California – Merced, Merced, CA 95343, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States; School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, United States; Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom; Section for Biodiversity & Ecoinformatics, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, DK-8000, Denmark; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Blonder B.,Moulton D.E.,Blois J.,et al. Predictability in community dynamics[J],2017,20(3).
APA	Blonder B..,Moulton D.E..,Blois J..,Enquist B.J..,Graae B.J..,...&Svenning J.-C..(2017).Predictability in community dynamics.Ecology Letters,20(3).
MLA	Blonder B.,et al."Predictability in community dynamics".Ecology Letters 20.3(2017).