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DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111103
	Long-term electric vehicles outlook and their potential impact on electric grid
	Kapustin N.O.; Grushevenko D.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	137
英文摘要	The last decade was marked by a new boom of popularity for electric transport. Massive government support helped increase EV annual sales from just 2 to over 753 thousands worldwide over the ten years. Many countries and private enterprises hold extremely high hopes for electric transport, predicting the imminent abandonment of the internal combustion engines (ICE). Our research shows that in 2018 EVs are yet still unable to compete on equal footing with conventional cars. However, should government and auto manufacturers maintain the current pace of development, true competitiveness between ICE and electric vehicles can be achieved by 2035 even in the low-oil-price environment. Our calculations indicate that by 2040, depending on the scenario, the EVs can secure an 11–28% share of the global road transport fleet. This will lead to an additional increase in global electricity consumption of 11–20%. The challenge, however, is the adaptation of power grid to the growing demand peaks due to EVs charging patterns. To maintain the course on “green” energy, global leaders in EV adoption need to double the efforts on development and implementation of energy storage technologies, otherwise, the spread of electric cars will lead to more fossil fuel consumption. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Electric vehicles; Electricity demand; Forecast; Modelling; Power sector; Transport sector
学科领域	Automobile manufacture; Electric energy storage; Electric power utilization; Electric vehicles; Forecasting; Fossil fuels; Fuel storage; Internal combustion engines; Models; Sales; Vehicle-to-grid; Vehicles; Auto manufacturers; Electricity demands; Electricity-consumption; Energy storage technologies; Government supports; Power sector; Private enterprise; Transport sectors; Electric power transmission networks; demand analysis; electric vehicle; electricity supply; energy use; forecasting method; modeling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Automobile manufacture; Electric energy storage; Electric power utilization; Electric vehicles; Forecasting; Fossil fuels; Fuel storage; Internal combustion engines; Models; Sales; Vehicle-to-grid; Vehicles; Auto manufacturers; Electricity demands; Electricity-consumption; Energy storage technologies; Government supports; Power sector; Private enterprise; Transport sectors; Electric power transmission networks; demand analysis; electric vehicle; electricity supply; energy use; forecasting method; modeling
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118230
作者单位	The Department of Research of Energy Complex of Russia and the World, The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Nagornaya st., 31, k.2Moscow 117186, Russian Federation
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kapustin N.O.,Grushevenko D.A.. Long-term electric vehicles outlook and their potential impact on electric grid[J],2020,137.
APA	Kapustin N.O.,&Grushevenko D.A..(2020).Long-term electric vehicles outlook and their potential impact on electric grid.Energy Policy,137.
MLA	Kapustin N.O.,et al."Long-term electric vehicles outlook and their potential impact on electric grid".Energy Policy 137(2020).