气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty

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DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111152
	Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty
	Sendstad L.H.; Chronopoulos M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	137
英文摘要	Although innovation and support schemes are among the main forces that drive investment in renewable energy (RE) technologies, both involve considerable uncertainty. We develop a real options framework to analyse the impact of technological, policy and electricity price uncertainty on the decision to invest sequentially in successively improved versions of a RE technology. Technological uncertainty is reflected in the random arrival of innovations, and policy uncertainty in the likely provision or retraction of a subsidy that takes the form of a fixed premium on top of the electricity price. We show that greater likelihood of subsidy retraction (provision) lowers (raises) the incentive to invest, and, by comparing a stepwise to a lumpy investment strategy, we show how an embedded option to adopt an improved technology version mitigates the impact of subsidy retraction on investment timing. Specifically, we show how stepwise investment facilitates earlier technology adoption compared to lumpy investment, and that, under stepwise investment, technological uncertainty accelerates technology adoption, thus further offsetting the incentive to delay investment in the light of subsidy retraction. © 2019
英文关键词	Investment analysis; Policy uncertainty; Real options; Renewable energy
学科领域	Renewable energy resources; Risk assessment; Uncertainty analysis; Investment analysis; Real Options; Real options frameworks; Renewable energies; Renewable energy technologies; Sequential investments; Technological uncertainty; Technology adoption; Investments; alternative energy; electricity supply; energy policy; incentive; innovation; investment; policy analysis; subsidy system; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Renewable energy resources; Risk assessment; Uncertainty analysis; Investment analysis; Real Options; Real options frameworks; Renewable energies; Renewable energy technologies; Sequential investments; Technological uncertainty; Technology adoption; Investments; alternative energy; electricity supply; energy policy; incentive; innovation; investment; policy analysis; subsidy system; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118173
作者单位	Department of Industrial Economics & Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science & Technology, Trondheim, 7491, Norway; City, University of London, Cass Business School, London, EC1Y 8TZ, United Kingdom; Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business & Management Science, Bergen, 5045, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sendstad L.H.,Chronopoulos M.. Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty[J],2020,137.
APA	Sendstad L.H.,&Chronopoulos M..(2020).Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty.Energy Policy,137.
MLA	Sendstad L.H.,et al."Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty".Energy Policy 137(2020).