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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.016
	An urbanization bomb? Population growth and social disorder in cities
	Buhaug H.; Urdal H.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	23 期号:1
英文摘要	For the first time in history, the majority of the world population now lives in cities. Global urbanization will continue at high speed; the world's urban population is projected to increase by more than 3 billion people between 2010 and 2050. Some of this increase will be the result of high urban fertility rates and reclassification of rural land into urban areas, but a significant portion of future urbanization will be caused by rural-to-urban migration. This migration is expected to be particularly prevalent in countries and regions most affected by the changing climate. While urban populations generally enjoy a higher quality of life, many cities in the developing world have large slums with populations that are largely excluded from access to resources, jobs, and public services. In the environmental security literature, great rural resource scarcity, causing rural to urban migration, is seen as an important source of violent conflict. This study investigates how population growth affects patterns of public unrest in urban centers within the context of crucial intervening factors like democracy, poverty, economic shocks. It utilizes a newly collected event dataset of urban social disturbance covering 55 major cities in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa since 1960. The empirical analysis provides little support for the notion that high and increasing urban population pressure leads to a higher risk or frequency of social disorder. Instead, we find that urban disorder is primarily associated with a lack of consistent political institutions, economic shocks, and ongoing civil conflict. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Climate change; Conflict; Environment; Population; Security; Urbanization
学科领域	climate change; empirical analysis; fertility; nature-society relations; political system; population growth; quality of life; resource availability; rural-urban migration; social security; urban area; urban population; urbanization; violence; Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; empirical analysis; fertility; nature-society relations; political system; population growth; quality of life; resource availability; rural-urban migration; social security; urban area; urban population; urbanization; violence; Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117990
作者单位	Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), PO Box 9229 Grønland, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway; Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Buhaug H.,Urdal H.. An urbanization bomb? Population growth and social disorder in cities[J],2013,23(1).
APA	Buhaug H.,&Urdal H..(2013).An urbanization bomb? Population growth and social disorder in cities.Global Environmental Change,23(1).
MLA	Buhaug H.,et al."An urbanization bomb? Population growth and social disorder in cities".Global Environmental Change 23.1(2013).