气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.09.001
	Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change
	Ruane A.C.; Major D.C.; Yu W.H.; Alam M.; Hussain S.G.; Khan A.S.; Hassan A.; Hossain B.M.T.A.; Goldberg R.; Horton R.M.; Rosenzweig C.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	23 期号:1
英文摘要	Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040-2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21 Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins' hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario. © 2012.
英文关键词	Adaptation; Agriculture; Bangladesh; Climate change; Climate impacts; Crop modeling; DSSAT; Floods; Rice; Sea level rise; Wheat
学科领域	carbon dioxide; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; crop production; environmental impact assessment; flood; hydrological modeling; precipitation (climatology); rice; sea level; vulnerability; wheat; Bangladesh; Brahmaputra River; Ganges River; Meghna River; Citrus maxima; Triticum aestivum
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon dioxide; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; crop production; environmental impact assessment; flood; hydrological modeling; precipitation (climatology); rice; sea level; vulnerability; wheat; Bangladesh; Brahmaputra River; Ganges River; Meghna River; Citrus maxima; Triticum aestivum
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117989
作者单位	NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Columbia University, Earth Institute Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, United States; The World Bank, Washington, DC, United States; Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh; Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC), Dhaka, Bangladesh; Institute of Water Modelling (IWM), Dhaka, Bangladesh; Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS), Dhaka, Bangladesh; United Nations Environment Programme, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ruane A.C.,Major D.C.,Yu W.H.,et al. Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change[J],2013,23(1).
APA	Ruane A.C..,Major D.C..,Yu W.H..,Alam M..,Hussain S.G..,...&Rosenzweig C..(2013).Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change.Global Environmental Change,23(1).
MLA	Ruane A.C.,et al."Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change".Global Environmental Change 23.1(2013).