气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.002
	Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change
	Van Vliet M.T.H.; Franssen W.H.P.; Yearsley J.R.; Ludwig F.; Haddeland I.; Lettenmaier D.P.; Kabat P.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	23 期号:2
英文摘要	Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for freshwater ecosystems and water use sectors. We used a global physically based hydrological-water temperature modelling framework forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected general circulation model (GCM) output for both the SRES A2 and B1 emissions scenario. This resulted in global projections of daily river discharge and water temperature under future climate. Our results show an increase in the seasonality of river discharge (both increase in high flow and decrease in low flow) for about one-third of the global land surface area for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000. Global mean and high (95th percentile) river water temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8-1.6 (1.0-2.2). °C for the SRES B1-A2 scenario for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for the United States, Europe, eastern China, and parts of southern Africa and Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities are exacerbated by projected decreases in low flows (resulting in a reduced thermal capacity). For strongly seasonal rivers with highest water temperatures during the low flow period, up to 26% of the increases in high (95th percentile) water temperature can be attributed indirectly to low flow changes, and the largest fraction is attributable directly to increased atmospheric energy input. A combination of large increases in river temperature and decreases in low flows are projected for the southeastern United States, Europe, eastern China, southern Africa and southern Australia. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for human uses such as thermoelectric power and drinking water production. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Climate change; Global water resources; River discharge; Water temperature
学科领域	atmospheric general circulation model; climate change; climate effect; drinking water; hydrological response; low flow; power plant; river discharge; river flow; river water; seasonality; water quality; water resource; water temperature; water use; Australia; China; Europe; United States
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric general circulation model; climate change; climate effect; drinking water; hydrological response; low flow; power plant; river discharge; river flow; river water; seasonality; water quality; water resource; water temperature; water use; Australia; China; Europe; United States
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117967
作者单位	Earth System Science, Climate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, United States; Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, P.O. Box 5091 Maj., 0301 Oslo, Norway; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Van Vliet M.T.H.,Franssen W.H.P.,Yearsley J.R.,et al. Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change[J],2013,23(2).
APA	Van Vliet M.T.H..,Franssen W.H.P..,Yearsley J.R..,Ludwig F..,Haddeland I..,...&Kabat P..(2013).Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change.Global Environmental Change,23(2).
MLA	Van Vliet M.T.H.,et al."Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change".Global Environmental Change 23.2(2013).