气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006
	Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world
	Haasnoot M.; Kwakkel J.H.; Walker W.E.; ter Maat J.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	23 期号:2
英文摘要	A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional changes called 'Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways'. We base our approach on two complementary approaches for designing adaptive plans: 'Adaptive Policymaking' and 'Adaptation Pathways'. Adaptive Policymaking is a theoretical approach describing a planning process with different types of actions (e.g. 'mitigating actions' and 'hedging actions') and signposts to monitor to see if adaptation is needed. In contrast, Adaptation Pathways provides an analytical approach for exploring and sequencing a set of possible actions based on alternative external developments over time. We illustrate the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach by producing an adaptive plan for long-term water management of the Rhine Delta in the Netherlands that takes into account the deep uncertainties about the future arising from social, political, technological, economic, and climate changes. The results suggest that it is worthwhile to further test and use the approach. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Adaptation pathways; Adaptive policies; Policymaking; Rhine delta; Uncertainty; Water management
学科领域	adaptive management; climate change; decision making; environmental policy; literature review; paradigm shift; uncertainty analysis; water management; Netherlands; Rhine Delta
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; climate change; decision making; environmental policy; literature review; paradigm shift; uncertainty analysis; water management; Netherlands; Rhine Delta
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117964
作者单位	Utrecht University, Department of Geosciences, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands; Twente University, Department of Water Engineering and Management, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands; Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, Netherlands; Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Haasnoot M.,Kwakkel J.H.,Walker W.E.,et al. Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world[J],2013,23(2).
APA	Haasnoot M.,Kwakkel J.H.,Walker W.E.,&ter Maat J..(2013).Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world.Global Environmental Change,23(2).
MLA	Haasnoot M.,et al."Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world".Global Environmental Change 23.2(2013).