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| DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.02.009 |
| Local path dependence of U.S. socioeconomic exposure to climate extremes and the vulnerability commitment | |
| Preston B.L. | |
| 发表日期 | 2013 |
| ISSN | 0959-3780 |
| 卷号 | 23期号:4 |
| 英文摘要 | Despite improvements in disaster risk management in the United States, a trend toward increasing economic losses from extreme weather events has been observed. This trend has been attributed to growth in socioeconomic exposure to extremes, a process characterized by strong path dependence. To understand the influence of path dependence on past and future losses, an index of potential socioeconomic exposure was developed at the U.S. county level based upon population size and inflation-adjusted wealth proxies. Since 1960, exposure has increased preferentially in the U.S. Southeast (particularly coastal and urban counties) and Southwest relative to the Great Plains and Northeast. Projected changes in exposure from 2009 to 2054 based upon scenarios of future demographic and economic change suggest a long-term commitment to increasing, but spatially heterogeneous, exposure to extremes, independent of climate change. The implications of this path dependence are examined in the context of several natural hazards. Using methods previously reported in the literature, annualized county-level losses from 1960 to 2008 for five climate-related natural hazards were normalized to 2009 values and then scaled based upon projected changes in exposure and two different estimates of the exposure elasticity of losses. Results indicate that losses from extreme events will grow by a factor of 1.3-1.7 and 1.8-3.9 by 2025 and 2050, respectively, with the exposure elasticity representing a major source of uncertainty. The implications of increasing physical vulnerability to extreme weather events for investments in disaster risk management are ultimately contingent upon the normative values of societal actors. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. |
| 英文关键词 | Adaptation; Climate change; Natural hazards; Path dependence; Socioeconomic development; Vulnerability |
| 学科领域 | adaptive management; climate change; climate variation; economic analysis; natural hazard; population size; risk assessment; socioeconomic status; vulnerability; Great Plains |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | adaptive management; climate change; climate variation; economic analysis; natural hazard; population size; risk assessment; socioeconomic status; vulnerability; Great Plains |
| 来源期刊 | Global Environmental Change
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117939 |
| 作者单位 | Climate Change Science Institute and Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Bldg. 2040, MS-6301, PO Box 2008, One Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6253, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Preston B.L.. Local path dependence of U.S. socioeconomic exposure to climate extremes and the vulnerability commitment[J],2013,23(4). |
| APA | Preston B.L..(2013).Local path dependence of U.S. socioeconomic exposure to climate extremes and the vulnerability commitment.Global Environmental Change,23(4). |
| MLA | Preston B.L.."Local path dependence of U.S. socioeconomic exposure to climate extremes and the vulnerability commitment".Global Environmental Change 23.4(2013). |
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