气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.03.003
	Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs
	Bell A.R.; Osgood D.E.; Cook B.I.; Anchukaitis K.J.; McCarney G.R.; Greene A.M.; Buckley B.M.; Cook E.R.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	23 期号:4
英文摘要	Proxy-based climate reconstructions can extend instrumental records by hundreds of years, providing a wealth of climate information at high temporal resolution. To date, however, their usefulness for informing climate risk and variability in policy and social applications has been understudied. Here, we apply tree-ring based reconstructions of drought for the last 700 years in a climate index insurance framework to show that additional information from long climate reconstructions significantly improves our understanding of the underlying climate distributions and variability. We further show that this added information can be used to better characterize risk to insurance providers, in many cases providing meaningful reductions in long-term contract costs to farmers in stand-alone policies. The impact of uncertainty on insurance premiums can also be reduced when insurers diversify portfolios, and the availability of long-term climate information from tree rings across a broad geographic range provides an opportunity to characterize spatial correlation in climate risk across geographic regions. Our results are robust to the range of climate variability experienced over the last 400 years and in model simulations of the twenty-first century, even within the context of changing baselines due to low frequency variability and secular climate trends. These results demonstrate the utility of longer-term climate histories in index insurance applications. Furthermore, they make the case from a climate-variability perspective for the continued importance of such approaches to improving the instrumental climate record, even into a non-stationary climate future. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Agriculture; Index insurance; Non-stationarity; Paleoclimate; Tree rings
学科领域	agri-environmental policy; agricultural worker; climate variation; cost-benefit analysis; geographical region; index method; numerical model; paleoclimate; policy making; proxy climate record; reconstruction; resolution; sustainability; tree ring
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agri-environmental policy; agricultural worker; climate variation; cost-benefit analysis; geographical region; index method; numerical model; paleoclimate; policy making; proxy climate record; reconstruction; resolution; sustainability; tree ring
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117938
作者单位	International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC 20006, United States; International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, United States; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bell A.R.,Osgood D.E.,Cook B.I.,et al. Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs[J],2013,23(4).
APA	Bell A.R..,Osgood D.E..,Cook B.I..,Anchukaitis K.J..,McCarney G.R..,...&Cook E.R..(2013).Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs.Global Environmental Change,23(4).
MLA	Bell A.R.,et al."Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs".Global Environmental Change 23.4(2013).