气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The climate-population nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging degradation trends in rangeland and pastoral livelihood zones

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.10.002
	The climate-population nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging degradation trends in rangeland and pastoral livelihood zones
	Pricope N.G.; Husak G.; Lopez-Carr D.; Funk C.; Michaelsen J.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	23 期号:6
英文摘要	Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have substantially increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. We identify regions where substantial rainfall decrease between two periods interrupted by the 1998 El Nino event (1981-2012) in the East African Horn is coupled with human population density increases. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using AVHRR and MODIS vegetation products from 1981 to 2012, we observe changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn. We observe vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing reduced main-growing season precipitation; these areas are also concurrently experiencing increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation patterns only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes might be responsible for the observed declining vegetation condition. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, pointing to potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings may have implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends and increased climatic variability. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Africa; Livelihoods zones; MODIS; Pastoralism; Population
学科领域	adaptive management; agricultural production; AVHRR; climate conditions; climate variation; El Nino; environmental degradation; environmental monitoring; food security; grassland; growing season; MODIS; pasture; precipitation (climatology); rangeland; risk factor; shrub; temperature effect; East Africa
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; agricultural production; AVHRR; climate conditions; climate variation; El Nino; environmental degradation; environmental monitoring; food security; grassland; growing season; MODIS; pasture; precipitation (climatology); rangeland; risk factor; shrub; temperature effect; East Africa
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117882
作者单位	Department of Geography and Geology, University of North Carolina Wilmington, DeLoach Hall, DL 104, 601 South College Road, Wilmington, NC 28403-5944, United States; Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-4060, United States; United States Geological Survey, University of California Santa Barbara, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-4060, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pricope N.G.,Husak G.,Lopez-Carr D.,et al. The climate-population nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging degradation trends in rangeland and pastoral livelihood zones[J],2013,23(6).
APA	Pricope N.G.,Husak G.,Lopez-Carr D.,Funk C.,&Michaelsen J..(2013).The climate-population nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging degradation trends in rangeland and pastoral livelihood zones.Global Environmental Change,23(6).
MLA	Pricope N.G.,et al."The climate-population nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging degradation trends in rangeland and pastoral livelihood zones".Global Environmental Change 23.6(2013).