气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.007
	Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty
	Antón J.; Cattaneo A.; Kimura S.; Lankoski J.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	23 期号:6
英文摘要	Climate change is forecasted to increase the variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Due to potential adverse impacts on crop yields it will have implications for demand of agricultural risk management instruments and farmers' adaptation strategies. Evidence on climate change impacts on crop yield variability and estimates of production risk from farm surveys in Australia, Canada and Spain, are used to analyse the policy choice between three different types of insurance (individual, area-yield and weather index) and ex post payments. The results are found to be subject to strong uncertainties and depend on the risk profile of different farmers and locations; the paper provides several insights on how to analyse these complexities. In general, area yield performs best more often across our countries and scenarios, in particular for the baseline and marginal climate change (without increases in extreme events). However, area yield can be very expensive if farmers have limited information on how climate change affects yields (misalignment in expectations), and particularly so under extreme climate change scenarios. In these more challenging cases, ex post payments perform well to increase low incomes when the risk is systemic like in Australia; Weather index performs well to reduce the welfare costs of risks when the correlation between yields and index is increased by the extreme events. The paper also analyses the robustness of different instruments in the face of limited knowledge of the probabilities of different climate change scenarios; highlighting that this added layer of uncertainty could be overcome to provide sound policy advice under uncertainties introduced by climate change. The role of providing information to farmers on impacts of climate change emerges as a crucial result of this paper as indicated by the significantly higher budgetary expenditures occurring across all instruments when farmers' expectations are misaligned relative to actual impacts of climate change. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Adaptation; Agricultural insurance; Climate change; MaxMin; Risk management; Uncertainty
学科领域	adaptive management; agricultural management; agricultural policy; agricultural practice; climate change; climate conditions; cost-benefit analysis; crop yield; demand analysis; forecasting method; insurance system; risk factor; uncertainty analysis; Australia; Canada; Spain
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; agricultural management; agricultural policy; agricultural practice; climate change; climate conditions; cost-benefit analysis; crop yield; demand analysis; forecasting method; insurance system; risk factor; uncertainty analysis; Australia; Canada; Spain
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117862
作者单位	OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2 rue André-Pascal, 75016 Paris, France; FAO Agricultural Development Economics Division, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Antón J.,Cattaneo A.,Kimura S.,et al. Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty[J],2013,23(6).
APA	Antón J.,Cattaneo A.,Kimura S.,&Lankoski J..(2013).Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty.Global Environmental Change,23(6).
MLA	Antón J.,et al."Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty".Global Environmental Change 23.6(2013).