气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia's agricultural land under global change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.013
	Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia's agricultural land under global change
	Bryan B.A.; Nolan M.; Harwood T.D.; Connor J.D.; Navarro-Garcia J.; King D.; Summers D.M.; Newth D.; Cai Y.; Grigg N.; Harman I.; Crossman N.D.; Grundy M.J.; Finnigan J.J.; Ferrier S.; Williams K.J.; Wilson K.A.; Law E.A.; Hatfield-Dodds S.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	28 期号:1
英文摘要	Global agroecosystems can contribute to both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, and market mechanisms provide a highly prospective means of achieving these outcomes. However, the ability of markets to motivate the supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from agricultural land is uncertain, especially given the future changes in environmental, economic, and social drivers. We quantified the potential supply of these services from the intensive agricultural land of Australia from 2013 to 2050 under four global outlooks in response to a carbon price and biodiversity payment scheme. Each global outlook specified emissions pathways, climate, food demand, energy price, and carbon price modeled using the Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM). Using a simplified version of the Land Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, economic returns to agriculture, carbon plantings, and environmental plantings were calculated each year. The supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services was then quantified given potential land use change under each global outlook, and the sensitivity of the results to key parameters was assessed. We found that carbon supply curves were similar across global outlooks. Sharp increases in carbon sequestration supply occurred at carbon prices exceeding 50$tCO2-1 in 2015 and exceeding 65$tCO2-1 in 2050. Based on GIAM-modeled carbon prices, little carbon sequestration was expected at 2015 under any global outlook. However, at 2050 expected carbon supply under each outlook differed markedly, ranging from 0 to 189MtCO2yr-1. Biodiversity services of 3.32% of the maximum may be achieved in 2050 for a 1$B investment under median scenario settings. We conclude that a carbon market can motivate supply of substantial carbon sequestration but only modest amounts of biodiversity services from agricultural land. A complementary biodiversity payment can synergistically increase the supply of biodiversity services but will not provide much additional carbon sequestration. The results were sensitive to global drivers, especially the carbon price, and the domestic drivers of adoption hurdle rate and agricultural productivity. The results can inform the design of an effective national policy and institutional portfolio addressing the dual objectives of climate change and biodiversity conservation that is robust to future uncertainty in both national and global drivers. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Biodiversity conservation; Carbon sequestration; Climate change; Ecosystem services; Land use change; Scenarios
学科领域	agricultural land; carbon sequestration; ecosystem service; environmental economics; global change; intensive agriculture; pollution tax; agricultural ecosystem; agricultural production; assessment method; biodiversity; carbon dioxide; climate change; future prospect; land use change; policy making; price dynamics; spatiotemporal analysis; trade-off; Australia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agricultural land; carbon sequestration; ecosystem service; environmental economics; global change; intensive agriculture; pollution tax; agricultural ecosystem; agricultural production; assessment method; biodiversity; carbon dioxide; climate change; future prospect; land use change; policy making; price dynamics; spatiotemporal analysis; trade-off; Australia
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117727
作者单位	CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, SA 5064, Australia; CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Black Mountain, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Dutton Park, QLD 4102, Australia; CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Black Mountain, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; CSIRO Land and Water, Black Mountain, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; CSIRO Land and Water, Dutton Park, QLD 4102, Australia; School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bryan B.A.,Nolan M.,Harwood T.D.,et al. Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia's agricultural land under global change[J],2014,28(1).
APA	Bryan B.A..,Nolan M..,Harwood T.D..,Connor J.D..,Navarro-Garcia J..,...&Hatfield-Dodds S..(2014).Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia's agricultural land under global change.Global Environmental Change,28(1).
MLA	Bryan B.A.,et al."Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia's agricultural land under global change".Global Environmental Change 28.1(2014).