气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.003
	Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change
	Müller D.; Sun Z.; Vongvisouk T.; Pflugmacher D.; Xu J.; Mertz O.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	28 期号:1
英文摘要	Payment schemes for ecosystem services such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) rely on the prediction of 'business-as-usual' scenarios to ensure that emission reductions from carbon credits are additional. However, land systems often undergo periods of nonlinear and abrupt change that invalidate predictions calibrated on past trends. Rapid land-system change can occur when critical thresholds in broad-scale underlying drivers such as commodity prices and climate conditions are crossed or when sudden events such as political change or natural disasters punctuate long-term equilibria. As a result, land systems can shift to new regimes with markedly different economic and ecological characteristics. Anticipating the timing and nature of regime shifts of land systems is extremely challenging, as we demonstrate through empirical case studies in four countries in Southeast Asia (China, Laos, Vietnam and Indonesia). The results show how sudden events and gradual changes in underlying drivers caused rapid, surprising and widespread land-system changes, including shifts to different regimes in China, Vietnam and Indonesia, whereas land systems in Laos remained stable in the study period but show recent signs of rapid change. The observed regime shifts were difficult to anticipate, which compromises the validity of predictions of future land-system changes and the assessment of their impact on greenhouse gas emissions, hydrological processes, agriculture, biodiversity and livelihoods. This implies that long-term initiatives such as REDD must account for the substantial uncertainties inherent in future predictions of land-system change. Learning from past regime shifts and identifying early warning signs for future regime shifts are important challenges for land-system science. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Deforestation; Land use; Prediction; REDD; Southeast Asia; Sustainability
学科领域	carbon emission; ecosystem service; emission control; environmental assessment; environmental economics; greenhouse gas; land use change; pollution tax; calibration; climate conditions; commodity price; deforestation; early warning system; future prospect; political change; prediction; sustainability; threshold; willingness to pay; Southeast Asia; China; Indonesia; Laos; Viet Nam
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon emission; ecosystem service; emission control; environmental assessment; environmental economics; greenhouse gas; land use change; pollution tax; calibration; climate conditions; commodity price; deforestation; early warning system; future prospect; political change; prediction; sustainability; threshold; willingness to pay; Southeast Asia; China; Indonesia; Laos; Viet Nam
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117718
作者单位	Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2, Halle (Saale), 06120, Germany; Integrated Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, Berlin, 10099, Germany; Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, Copenhagen, 1350, Denmark; Faculty of Forestry, National University of Laos, P.O. Box 7322, Vientiane, Laos; World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), 132# Lanhei Road, Heilongtan, Kumming, 650201, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Müller D.,Sun Z.,Vongvisouk T.,et al. Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change[J],2014,28(1).
APA	Müller D.,Sun Z.,Vongvisouk T.,Pflugmacher D.,Xu J.,&Mertz O..(2014).Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change.Global Environmental Change,28(1).
MLA	Müller D.,et al."Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change".Global Environmental Change 28.1(2014).