气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.12.008
	Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models
	Herrero M.; Thornton P.K.; Bernués A.; Baltenweck I.; Vervoort J.; van de Steeg J.; Makokha S.; van Wijk M.T.; Karanja S.; Rufino M.C.; Staal S.J.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	24 期号:1
英文摘要	We explore how smallholder agricultural systems in the Kenyan highlands might intensify and/or diversify in the future under a range of socio-economic scenarios. Data from approximately 3000 households were analyzed and farming systems characterized. Plausible socio-economic scenarios of how Kenya might evolve, and their potential impacts on the agricultural sector, were developed with a range of stakeholders. We study how different types of farming systems might increase or diminish in importance under different scenarios using a land-use model sensitive to prices, opportunity cost of land and labour, and other variables. We then use a household model to determine the types of enterprises in which different types of households might engage under different socio-economic conditions. Trajectories of intensification, diversification, and stagnation for different farming systems are identified. Diversification with cash crops is found to be a key intensification strategy as farm size decreases and labour costs increase. Dairy expansion, while important for some trajectories, is mostly viable when land available is not a constraint, mainly due to the need for planting fodders at the expense of cropland areas. We discuss the results in relation to induced innovation theories of intensification. We outline how the methodology employed could be used for integrating global and regional change assessments with local-level studies on farming options, adaptation to global change, and upscaling of social, environmental and economic impacts of agricultural development investments and interventions. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Agriculture; Dairy; Household modelling; Scenarios; Smallholders; Sustainable intensification
语种	英语
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117579
作者单位	Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 306 Carmody Road, St Lucia, 4067 QLD, Australia; CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), PO Box 30709-00100, Nairobi, Kenya; International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), PO Box 30709-00100, Nairobi, Kenya; AgriFood Research and Technology Centre of Aragon, Avda. Montaña 930, 50059 Zaragoza, Spain; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; Kenyan Agricultural Research Institute (KARI), Nairobi, Kenya; Forest and Environment, Center for International Forestry Research, P.O. Box 30677 - 00100, Nairobi, Kenya
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Herrero M.,Thornton P.K.,Bernués A.,et al. Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models[J],2014,24(1).
APA	Herrero M..,Thornton P.K..,Bernués A..,Baltenweck I..,Vervoort J..,...&Staal S.J..(2014).Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models.Global Environmental Change,24(1).
MLA	Herrero M.,et al."Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models".Global Environmental Change 24.1(2014).