气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Analysis of deforestation and protected area effectiveness in Indonesia: A comparison of Bayesian spatial models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.004
	Analysis of deforestation and protected area effectiveness in Indonesia: A comparison of Bayesian spatial models
	Brun C.; Cook A.R.; Lee J.S.H.; Wich S.A.; Koh L.P.; Carrasco L.R.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	31
英文摘要	Tropical deforestation in Southeast Asia is one of the leading causes of carbon emissions and reductions of biodiversity. Spatially explicit analyses of the dynamics of deforestation in Indonesia are needed to support sustainable land use planning but the value of such analyses has so far been limited by data availability and geographical scope. We use remote sensing maps of land use change from 2000 to 2010 to compare Bayesian computational models: autologistic and von Thünen spatial-autoregressive models. We use the models to analyze deforestation patterns in Indonesia and the effectiveness of protected areas. Cross-validation indicated that models had an accuracy of 70-85%. We find that the spatial pattern of deforestation is explained by transport cost, agricultural rent and history of nearby illegal logging. The effectiveness of protected areas presented mixed results. After controlling for multiple confounders, protected areas of category Ia, exclusively managed for biodiversity conservation, were shown to be ineffective at slowing down deforestation. Our results suggest that monitoring and prevention of road construction within protected areas, using logging concessions as buffers of protected areas and geographical prioritization of control measures in illegal logging hotspots would be more effective for conservation than reliance on protected areas alone, especially under food price increasing scenarios. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Conservation planning; Food security; Landscape modeling; Markov chain monte carlo; Spatial autoregressive models; Von thünen model
学科领域	Bayesian analysis; biodiversity; conservation planning; deforestation; food security; land use change; land use planning; protected area; remote sensing; spatial analysis; Indonesia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Bayesian analysis; biodiversity; conservation planning; deforestation; food security; land use change; land use planning; protected area; remote sensing; spatial analysis; Indonesia
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117546
作者单位	Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Department of Applied Mathematics, Ecole Polytechnique in Palaiseau, France; Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Yale-NUS College, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Research Centre for Evolutionary Psychology and Palaeoecology, School of Natural Sciences and Psychology, Liverpool John Moores University, United Kingdom; Environmental Institute, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brun C.,Cook A.R.,Lee J.S.H.,et al. Analysis of deforestation and protected area effectiveness in Indonesia: A comparison of Bayesian spatial models[J],2015,31.
APA	Brun C.,Cook A.R.,Lee J.S.H.,Wich S.A.,Koh L.P.,&Carrasco L.R..(2015).Analysis of deforestation and protected area effectiveness in Indonesia: A comparison of Bayesian spatial models.Global Environmental Change,31.
MLA	Brun C.,et al."Analysis of deforestation and protected area effectiveness in Indonesia: A comparison of Bayesian spatial models".Global Environmental Change 31(2015).