气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changing mechanism of global water scarcity events: Impacts of socioeconomic changes and inter-annual hydro-climatic variability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.011
	Changing mechanism of global water scarcity events: Impacts of socioeconomic changes and inter-annual hydro-climatic variability
	Veldkamp T.I.E.; Wada Y.; de Moel H.; Kummu M.; Eisner S.; Aerts J.C.J.H.; Ward P.J.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	32
英文摘要	Changes in available fresh water resources, together with changes in water use, force our society to adapt continuously to water scarcity conditions. Although several studies assess the role of long-term climate change and socioeconomic developments on global water scarcity, the impact of inter-annual climate variability is less understood and often neglected. This paper presents a global scale water scarcity assessment that accounts for both temporal changes in socioeconomic conditions and hydro-climatic variability over the period 1960-2000. We thereby visualized for the first time possible over- and underestimations that may have been made in previous water scarcity assessments due to the use long-term means in their analyses. Subsequently, we quantified the relative contribution of hydro-climatic variability and socioeconomic developments on changing water scarcity conditions. We found that hydro-climatic variability and socioeconomic changes interact and that they can strengthen or attenuate each other, both regionally and at the global scale. In general, hydro-climatic variability can be held responsible for the largest share (>79%) of the yearly changes in global water scarcity, whilst only after six to ten years, socioeconomic developments become the largest driver of change. Moreover, our results showed that the growth in the relative contribution of socioeconomic developments to changing water scarcity conditions stabilizes towards 2000 and that the impacts of hydro-climatic variability remain significantly important. The findings presented in this paper could be of use for water managers and policy makers coping with water scarcity issues since correct information both on the current situation and regarding the relative contribution of different mechanisms shaping future conditions is key to successful adaptation and risk reduction. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Global hydrological modelling; Hydro-climatic variability; Impact assessment; Inter-annual variability; Socioeconomic conditions; Water scarcity
学科领域	adaptive management; annual variation; assessment method; climate variation; hydrological modeling; policy making; socioeconomic conditions; water management; water resource
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; annual variation; assessment method; climate variation; hydrological modeling; policy making; socioeconomic conditions; water management; water resource
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117511
作者单位	Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Netherlands; Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Water and Development Research Group, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland; Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Veldkamp T.I.E.,Wada Y.,de Moel H.,et al. Changing mechanism of global water scarcity events: Impacts of socioeconomic changes and inter-annual hydro-climatic variability[J],2015,32.
APA	Veldkamp T.I.E..,Wada Y..,de Moel H..,Kummu M..,Eisner S..,...&Ward P.J..(2015).Changing mechanism of global water scarcity events: Impacts of socioeconomic changes and inter-annual hydro-climatic variability.Global Environmental Change,32.
MLA	Veldkamp T.I.E.,et al."Changing mechanism of global water scarcity events: Impacts of socioeconomic changes and inter-annual hydro-climatic variability".Global Environmental Change 32(2015).