气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.07.002
	Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale
	Girard C.; Pulido-Velazquez M.; Rinaudo J.-D.; Pagé C.; Caballero Y.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	34
英文摘要	The high uncertainty associated with the effect of global change on water resource systems calls for a better combination of conventional top-down and bottom-up approaches, in order to design robust adaptation plans at the local scale. The methodological framework presented in this article introduces "bottom-up meets top-down" integrated approach to support the selection of adaptation measures at the river basin level by comprehensively integrating the goals of economic efficiency, social acceptability, environmental sustainability and adaptation robustness. The top-down approach relies on the use of a chain of models to assess the impact of global change on water resources and its adaptive management over a range of climate projections. Future demand scenarios and locally prioritised adaptation measures are identified following a bottom-up approach through a participatory process with the relevant stakeholders and experts. The optimal combinations of adaptation measures are then selected using a hydro-economic model at basin scale for each climate projection. The resulting adaptation portfolios are, finally, climate checked to define a robust least-regret programme of measures based on trade-offs between adaptation costs and the reliability of supply for agricultural demands.This innovative approach has been applied to a Mediterranean basin, the Orb river basin (France). Mid-term climate projections, downscaled from 9 General Climate Models, are used to assess the uncertainty associated with climate projections. Demand evolution scenarios are developed to project agricultural and urban water demands on the 2030 time horizon. The results derived from the integration of the bottom-up and top-down approaches illustrate the sensitivity of the adaptation strategies to the climate projections, and provide an assessment of the trade-offs between the performance of the water resource system and the cost of the adaptation plan to inform local decision-making. The article contributes new methodological elements for the development of an integrated framework for decision-making under climate change uncertainty, advocating an interdisciplinary approach that bridges the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Adaptation measures; Bottom-up; Climate change; Climate check; River basin model; Top-down
学科领域	bottom-up approach; climate modeling; decision making; global change; integrated approach; interdisciplinary approach; prioritization; river basin; sustainability; top-down approach; uncertainty analysis; adaptive management; climate change; participatory approach; performance assessment; water demand; water management; France; Herault; Languedoc-Roussillon; Orb River
语种	英语
scopus关键词	bottom-up approach; climate modeling; decision making; global change; integrated approach; interdisciplinary approach; prioritization; river basin; sustainability; top-down approach; uncertainty analysis; adaptive management; climate change; participatory approach; performance assessment; water demand; water management; France; Herault; Languedoc-Roussillon; Orb River
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117487
作者单位	Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera s/n, Valencia, 46022, Spain; BRGM, French Geological Survey, 1039, Rue de Pinville, Montpellier, 34000, France; CERFACS (European Center for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computing), CERFACS/CNRS, URA1875, 42 Ave G. Coriolis, Toulouse Cedex 1, 31057, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Girard C.,Pulido-Velazquez M.,Rinaudo J.-D.,et al. Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale[J],2015,34.
APA	Girard C.,Pulido-Velazquez M.,Rinaudo J.-D.,Pagé C.,&Caballero Y..(2015).Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale.Global Environmental Change,34.
MLA	Girard C.,et al."Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale".Global Environmental Change 34(2015).