气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Drivers for global agricultural land use change: The nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.08.011
	Drivers for global agricultural land use change: The nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy
	Alexander P.; Rounsevell M.D.A.; Dislich C.; Dodson J.R.; Engström K.; Moran D.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	35
英文摘要	The nexus of population growth and changing diets has increased the demands placed on agriculture to supply food for human consumption, animal feed and fuel. Rising incomes lead to dietary changes, from staple crops, towards commodities with greater land requirements, e.g. meat and dairy products. Despite yield improvements partially offsetting increases in demand, agricultural land has still been expanding, causing potential harm to ecosystems, e.g. through deforestation. We use country-level panel data (1961-2011) to allocate the land areas used to produce food for human consumption, waste and biofuels, and to attribute the food production area changes to diet, population and yields drivers. The results show that the production of animal products dominates agricultural land use and land use change over the 50-year period, accounting for 65% of land use change. The rate of extensification of animal production was found to have reduced more recently, principally due to the smaller effect of population growth. The area used for bioenergy was shown to be relatively small, but formed a substantial contribution (36%) to net agricultural expansion in the most recent period. Nevertheless, in comparison to dietary shifts in animal products, bioenergy accounted for less than a tenth of the increase in demand for agricultural land. Population expansion has been the largest driver for agricultural land use change, but dietary changes are a significant and growing driver. China was a notable exception, where dietary transitions dominate food consumption changes, due to rapidly rising incomes. This suggests that future dietary changes will become the principal driver for land use change, pointing to the potential need for demand-side measures to regulate agricultural expansion. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Dietary patterns; Food security; Land displacement; Land use
学科领域	agricultural extension; agricultural land; animal product; bioenergy; crop yield; deforestation; demand analysis; dietary shift; food security; global perspective; land use change; panel data; population growth; spatiotemporal analysis; China; Animalia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agricultural extension; agricultural land; animal product; bioenergy; crop yield; deforestation; demand analysis; dietary shift; food security; global perspective; land use change; panel data; population growth; spatiotemporal analysis; China; Animalia
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117461
作者单位	School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, United Kingdom; Land Economy and Environment Research Group, SRUC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JG, United Kingdom; Department of Ecosystem Modelling, University of Göttingen, Büsgenweg 4, Göttingen, 37077, Germany; Department of Ecological Modelling, UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, Leipzig, Germany; Green Chemistry Centre of Excellence, Chemistry Department, University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom; Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Paradisgatan 2, Lund, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Alexander P.,Rounsevell M.D.A.,Dislich C.,et al. Drivers for global agricultural land use change: The nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy[J],2015,35.
APA	Alexander P.,Rounsevell M.D.A.,Dislich C.,Dodson J.R.,Engström K.,&Moran D..(2015).Drivers for global agricultural land use change: The nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy.Global Environmental Change,35.
MLA	Alexander P.,et al."Drivers for global agricultural land use change: The nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy".Global Environmental Change 35(2015).