气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Boom-bust patterns in the Brazilian Amazon

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.013
	Boom-bust patterns in the Brazilian Amazon
	Weinhold D.; Reis E.J.; Vale P.M.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	35
英文摘要	We revisit the long-standing hypothesis that the process of human development and land clearing in Amazonia follows a boom-and-bust (inverted U) pattern, where early clearing leads to a socioeconomic 'boom' which then turns to 'bust' after the deforestation process has matured. Although the hypothesis has found some empirical support in cross sectional data, a handful of longitudinal case studies have failed to identify incidences of 'busts'. We show that the cross sectional results are a spurious artifact of spatial correlation, driven primarily by the large, multifaceted (and unobserved) differences between municipalities in the states of Amazonas and Maranhão. Furthermore, using new panel data on the Human Development Index (HDI) and deforestation rates from 1991 to 2010 we find no evidence of such boom-bust patterns in the time series. Municipalities categorized as either 'post-frontier' or 'pre-frontier' in 2000 enjoyed equal increases in HDI over the subsequent decade as the rest of the Amazon. Panel data analysis with fixed effects (within estimation) robustly rejects the hypothesis that HDI and deforestation follow an inverted-U relationship. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Boom-bust cycles; Brazilian Amazon; Deforestation; Sustainability
学科领域	artifact; deforestation; empirical analysis; environmental change; human development index; panel data; spatiotemporal analysis; sustainability; Amazonas [Brazil]; Brazil; Maranhao
语种	英语
scopus关键词	artifact; deforestation; empirical analysis; environmental change; human development index; panel data; spatiotemporal analysis; sustainability; Amazonas [Brazil]; Brazil; Maranhao
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117436
作者单位	Department of International Development, London School of Economics, Hougton Street, London, WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom; Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; CAPES Foundation, Ministry of Education of Brazil, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Weinhold D.,Reis E.J.,Vale P.M.. Boom-bust patterns in the Brazilian Amazon[J],2015,35.
APA	Weinhold D.,Reis E.J.,&Vale P.M..(2015).Boom-bust patterns in the Brazilian Amazon.Global Environmental Change,35.
MLA	Weinhold D.,et al."Boom-bust patterns in the Brazilian Amazon".Global Environmental Change 35(2015).