气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2°C scenarios with historically observed rates of change

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.019
	Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2°C scenarios with historically observed rates of change
	van Sluisveld M.A.E.; Harmsen J.H.M.; Bauer N.; McCollum D.L.; Riahi K.; Tavoni M.; van Vuuren D.P.; Wilson C.; van der Zwaan B.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	35
英文摘要	This paper systematically compares modeled rates of change provided by global integrated assessment models aiming for the 2. °C objective to historically observed rates of change. Such a comparison can provide insights into the difficulty of achieving such stringent climate stabilization scenarios. The analysis focuses specifically on the rates of change for technology expansion and diffusion, emissions and energy supply investments. The associated indicators vary in terms of system focus (technology-specific or energy system wide), temporal scale (timescale or lifetime), spatial scale (regional or global) and normalization (accounting for entire system growth or not). Although none of the indicators provide conclusive insights as to the achievability of scenarios, this study finds that indicators that look into absolute change remain within the range of historical growth frontiers for the next decade, but increase to unprecedented levels before mid-century. Indicators that take into account or normalize for overall system growth find future change to be broadly within historical ranges. This is particularly the case for monetary-based normalization metrics like GDP compared to energy-based normalization metrics like primary energy. By applying a diverse set of indicators alternative, complementary insights into how scenarios compare with historical observations are acquired but they do not provide further insights on the possibility of achieving rates of change that are beyond current day practice. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	2 degrees; Energy system change; Feasibility; Integrated assessment modeling; Model validation; Technological change
学科领域	climate change; comparative study; energy resource; environmental management; feasibility study; future prospect; global change; Gross Domestic Product; integrated approach; model validation; temporal analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; comparative study; energy resource; environmental management; feasibility study; future prospect; global change; Gross Domestic Product; integrated approach; model validation; temporal analysis
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117433
作者单位	Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, CS Utrecht, NL-3584, Netherlands; PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, BA Bilthoven, 3720, Netherlands; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; ECN Policy Studies, Energy research Centre of the Netherlands, Amsterdam, Netherlands; University of Amsterdam, Faculty of Science, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies, Bologna, Italy; Politecnico di Milano, Department of Management and Economics, Milan, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van Sluisveld M.A.E.,Harmsen J.H.M.,Bauer N.,et al. Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2°C scenarios with historically observed rates of change[J],2015,35.
APA	van Sluisveld M.A.E..,Harmsen J.H.M..,Bauer N..,McCollum D.L..,Riahi K..,...&van der Zwaan B..(2015).Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2°C scenarios with historically observed rates of change.Global Environmental Change,35.
MLA	van Sluisveld M.A.E.,et al."Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2°C scenarios with historically observed rates of change".Global Environmental Change 35(2015).