气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Coupling human and natural systems: Simulating adaptive management agents in dynamically changing forest landscapes

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.10.003
	Coupling human and natural systems: Simulating adaptive management agents in dynamically changing forest landscapes
	Rammer W.; Seidl R.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	35
英文摘要	Global change poses considerable challenges for ecosystems and their managers. To address these challenges it is increasingly clear that a coupled human and natural systems perspective is needed. While this science has advanced greatly in recent years, its mainstreaming into operational ecosystem management has proven to be difficult. One aspect complicating the application of a coupled human and natural systems approach has been the lack of tools that are simultaneously able to accommodate the complexities of ecological and social systems. However, neglecting their full interactions and feedbacks could lead to either an overestimation of the systems' vulnerability to global change (e.g., where the social adaptive capacity is disregarded in assessments based solely on ecosystem models), or to the pretense of stability (e.g., where the dynamic responses of ecosystem processes to environmental changes are neglected in models of the social system). These issues are of particular importance in forest ecosystems, where human interventions affect ecosystem dynamics for decades to centuries. In order to improve the assessments of future forest trajectories, our objectives here were (i) to operationalize and describe the coupling of human and natural systems in the context of landscape-scale forest ecosystem management, and (ii) to demonstrate simulated interactions between the social and ecological spheres in the context of adaptation to a changing climate. We developed an agent-based model accounting for different spatial (stand and management unit) and temporal (operational and strategic) levels of forest management decision making and coupled it with the forest landscape simulator iLand. We show that the coupled human and natural systems model is autonomously able to reproduce meaningful trajectories of managed mountain forest landscape in Central Europe over the extended period of multiple centuries. Experimenting with different decision heuristics of managing agents suggests that both passive (reactive) and active (prospective) adaptive behavior might be necessary to successfully stabilize system trajectories under rapidly changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, investigating multi-agent landscapes we found that diversity in managerial responses to environmental changes increases the heterogeneity on the landscape, with positive effects on the temporal stability of ecosystem trajectories. We conclude that an integrated consideration of human and natural systems is important to realistically project trajectories of managed forests under global change, and highlight the potential of social-ecological feedbacks and heterogeneity in stabilizing the provisioning of ecosystem services in a changing environment. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	ABE; Adaptive management; Agent-based model; Forest ecosystem management; Forest landscape model; Global change; ILand; Social-ecological systems
学科领域	adaptive management; decision making; ecosystem management; ecosystem modeling; ecosystem service; environmental assessment; forest ecosystem; forest management; future prospect; global change; nature-society relations; Central Europe
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; decision making; ecosystem management; ecosystem modeling; ecosystem service; environmental assessment; forest ecosystem; forest management; future prospect; global change; nature-society relations; Central Europe
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117430
作者单位	Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, Wien, 1190, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rammer W.,Seidl R.. Coupling human and natural systems: Simulating adaptive management agents in dynamically changing forest landscapes[J],2015,35.
APA	Rammer W.,&Seidl R..(2015).Coupling human and natural systems: Simulating adaptive management agents in dynamically changing forest landscapes.Global Environmental Change,35.
MLA	Rammer W.,et al."Coupling human and natural systems: Simulating adaptive management agents in dynamically changing forest landscapes".Global Environmental Change 35(2015).