气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Exploring resource efficiency for energy, land and phosphorus use: Implications for resource scarcity and the global environment

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.016
	Exploring resource efficiency for energy, land and phosphorus use: Implications for resource scarcity and the global environment
	van den Berg M.; Neumann K.; van Vuuren D.P.; Bouwman A.F.; Kram T.; Bakkes J.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	36
英文摘要	In this paper, we present four model-based scenarios exploring the potential for resource efficiency for energy, land and phosphorus use, and implications for resource depletion, climate change and biodiversity. The scenarios explored include technological improvements as well as structural changes in production systems and lifestyle changes. Many of such changes have long lead times, requiring up front and timely investments in infrastructure, innovative incentive structures and education. For simulating the scenarios we applied the IMAGE modelling framework, with a time horizon until 2050.Our findings confirm a large potential for more efficient resource use: our (no new policies) baseline scenario shows a global increase, between 2010 and 2050, by 80% of primary energy use, 4% of arable land and 40% of phosphorus fertilisers. These numbers are reduced to +25% (primary energy), -9% (arable land) and +9% (phosphorus) in the global resource efficiency scenario. Baseline developments and resource efficiency opportunities vary strikingly among regions, resources and sectors. Phosphorus use, for example, is expected to increase most on croplands in developing countries, whereas the largest potential for phosphorus use efficiency lies in the livestock sector and urban sewage treatment in industrialised countries. Consequently, while resource efficiency resonates well as a general notion in policy thinking, concrete policies need to be region-specific, resource-specific and sector-specific.Efficiency efforts on one resource tend to contribute to efficient use of other resources and to benefit the environment. There are also trade-offs, however, and the synergies analysed do not make problem-specific policies redundant: in 2050, the global resource efficiency scenario presents higher phosphorus use and higher use of fossil fuels than in 2010; greenhouse gas emission targets are met by half; and biodiversity loss slows down but is not halted. Moreover, part of the efficiency gains in land and phosphorus use is sacrificed when this scenario is combined with ambitious climate policy, due to the substantial resource requirements for the deployment of bio-energy-albeit much less than in a scenario without more efficient resource use. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Biodiversity; Climate policy; Integrated assessment; Resource depletion; Resource efficiency scenarios
学科领域	agricultural land; baseline survey; biodiversity; climate change; developing world; efficiency measurement; energy use; environmental policy; global perspective; innovation; integrated approach; land use; phosphorus; resource assessment; resource availability; technological change; bioenergy; energy efficiency; energy resource; environmental assessment; global change; global climate; greenhouse gas; land use change; lifestyle; resource depletion; sewage treatment; trade-off
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agricultural land; baseline survey; biodiversity; climate change; developing world; efficiency measurement; energy use; environmental policy; global perspective; innovation; integrated approach; land use; phosphorus; resource assessment; resource availability; technological change; bioenergy; energy efficiency; energy resource; environmental assessment; global change; global climate; greenhouse gas; land use change; lifestyle; resource depletion; sewage treatment; trade-off
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117418
作者单位	PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, Netherlands; Wageningen University, Laboratory of Geo-information Science and Remote Sensing, P.O. box 47, Wageningen, 6700 AA, Netherlands; Utrecht University, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geosciences, Postbus 80.115, Utrecht, 3508 TC, Netherlands; Utrecht University, Department of Earth Sciences-Geochemistry, Faculty of Geosciences, P.O. Box 80.021, Utrecht, 3508 TA, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van den Berg M.,Neumann K.,van Vuuren D.P.,et al. Exploring resource efficiency for energy, land and phosphorus use: Implications for resource scarcity and the global environment[J],2016,36.
APA	van den Berg M.,Neumann K.,van Vuuren D.P.,Bouwman A.F.,Kram T.,&Bakkes J..(2016).Exploring resource efficiency for energy, land and phosphorus use: Implications for resource scarcity and the global environment.Global Environmental Change,36.
MLA	van den Berg M.,et al."Exploring resource efficiency for energy, land and phosphorus use: Implications for resource scarcity and the global environment".Global Environmental Change 36(2016).