气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The future nexus of the Brahmaputra River Basin: Climate, water, energy and food trajectories

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.01.002
	The future nexus of the Brahmaputra River Basin: Climate, water, energy and food trajectories
	Yang Y.C.E.; Wi S.; Ray P.A.; Brown C.M.; Khalil A.F.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	37
英文摘要	Advance knowledge of conflicting trajectories of water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is highly relevant for water policy and planning, especially for basins that cross national boundaries. The Brahmaputra River Basin in South Asia, home for 130 million people, is such a basin. Development of new hydropower projects, upstream water diversions and possible climate changes introduce concerns among riparian countries about future water supply for energy and food production in the basin. This study presents a new hydro-economic water system model of the basin coupled with ex post scenario analysis under the "nexus thinking" concept to identify and illustrate where development paths are in conflict. Results indicate that the ability of future development to remain free of conflict hinges mostly on the amount of precipitation falling in the basin in the future. Uncertain future precipitation along with uncertain future temperature and the unknown amount of upstream water diversion combine to strongly influence future water, energy and food production in the basin. Specifically, decreases in precipitation coupled with large upstream diversions (e.g., diversion in the territory of China) would leave one or more riparian countries unable to secure enough water to produce their desired energy and food. Future climate projected by General Circulation Models suggest a warmer and wetter climate condition in the region, which is associated with an increase in streamflow and easing of conflicts at the WEF nexus in the basin. The methodology presented here is expected to be generally useful for diagnosing the conditions that may cause water resources development goals to not be achieved due to either changes in climate or water use among competing users. © 2016.
英文关键词	Ex post scenario analysis; The jamuna river; The yarlung tsangpo river; Transboundary water management; Water resources systems analysis
学科领域	analytical method; climate change; economic analysis; food production; future prospect; hydroelectric power plant; precipitation assessment; streamflow; transboundary cooperation; water management; water resource; water supply; water use; Bangladesh; Brahmaputra Basin; Jamuna River; South Asia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	analytical method; climate change; economic analysis; food production; future prospect; hydroelectric power plant; precipitation assessment; streamflow; transboundary cooperation; water management; water resource; water supply; water use; Bangladesh; Brahmaputra Basin; Jamuna River; South Asia
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117406
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts-Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States; The World Bank, Washington, DC, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang Y.C.E.,Wi S.,Ray P.A.,et al. The future nexus of the Brahmaputra River Basin: Climate, water, energy and food trajectories[J],2016,37.
APA	Yang Y.C.E.,Wi S.,Ray P.A.,Brown C.M.,&Khalil A.F..(2016).The future nexus of the Brahmaputra River Basin: Climate, water, energy and food trajectories.Global Environmental Change,37.
MLA	Yang Y.C.E.,et al."The future nexus of the Brahmaputra River Basin: Climate, water, energy and food trajectories".Global Environmental Change 37(2016).