气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.02.003
	Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy
	Mercure J.-F.; Pollitt H.; Bassi A.M.; Viñuales J.E.; Edwards N.R.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	37
英文摘要	This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanisms, such as technology lock-ins, arising from multi-agent interactions) and agent heterogeneity (e.g. differences in consumer and investment behaviour arising from income stratification). We first characterise the uncertainty faced by climate policy-makers and its implications for investment decision-makers. We then identify five shortcomings in the equilibrium and optimisation-based approaches most frequently used to inform sustainability policy: (i) their normative, optimisation-based nature, (ii) their unrealistic reliance on the full-rationality of agents, (iii) their inability to account for mutual influences among agents (multi-agent interactions) and capture related self-reinforcing (positive feedback) processes, (iv) their inability to represent multiple solutions and path-dependency, and (v) their inability to properly account for agent heterogeneity. The aim of this article is to introduce an alternative modelling approach based on complexity dynamics and agent heterogeneity, and explore its use in four key areas of sustainability policy, namely (1) technology adoption and diffusion, (2) macroeconomic impacts of low-carbon policies, (3) interactions between the socio-economic system and the natural environment, and (4) the anticipation of policy outcomes. The practical relevance of the proposed methodology is subsequently discussed by reference to four specific applications relating to each of the above areas: the diffusion of transport technology, the impact of low-carbon investment on income and employment, the management of cascading uncertainties, and the cross-sectoral impact of biofuels policies. In conclusion, the article calls for a fundamental methodological shift aligning the modelling of the socio-economic system with that of the climatic system, for a combined and realistic understanding of the impact of sustainability policies. © 2016 The Authors.
英文关键词	Behavioural sciences; Climate change mitigation; Complexity sciences; Environmental policy assessment
学科领域	biofuel; climate change; complexity; economic impact; environmental economics; environmental modeling; environmental policy; heterogeneity; methodology; policy analysis; policy making; socioeconomic impact; sustainability; technology adoption
语种	英语
scopus关键词	biofuel; climate change; complexity; economic impact; environmental economics; environmental modeling; environmental policy; heterogeneity; methodology; policy analysis; policy making; socioeconomic impact; sustainability; technology adoption
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117397
作者单位	Department of Environmental Science, Radboud University, PO Box 9010, Nijmegen, 6500 GL, Netherlands; Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance (C-EENRG), University of Cambridge, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge, CB3 1EP, United Kingdom; Cambridge Econometrics Ltd., Covent Garden, Cambridge, CB1 2HT, United Kingdom; Knowledge Srl, 5, via Jean De Fernex, Olgiate Olona, VA, 21057, Italy; Environment, Earth and Ecosystems, The Open University, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mercure J.-F.,Pollitt H.,Bassi A.M.,et al. Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy[J],2016,37.
APA	Mercure J.-F.,Pollitt H.,Bassi A.M.,Viñuales J.E.,&Edwards N.R..(2016).Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy.Global Environmental Change,37.
MLA	Mercure J.-F.,et al."Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy".Global Environmental Change 37(2016).