气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Methods and approaches to modelling the Anthropocene

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.08.007
	Methods and approaches to modelling the Anthropocene
	Verburg P.H.; Dearing J.A.; Dyke J.G.; Leeuw S.V.D.; Seitzinger S.; Steffen W.; Syvitski J.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	39
英文摘要	The ‘Anthropocene’ concept provides a conceptual framework that encapsulates the current global situation in which society has an ever-greater dominating influence on Earth System functioning. Simulation models used to understand earth system dynamics provide early warning, scenario analysis and evaluation of environmental management and policies. This paper aims to assess the extent to which current models represent the Anthropocene and suggest ways forward. Current models do not fully reflect the typical characteristics of the Anthropocene, such as societal influences and interactions with natural processes, feedbacks and system dynamics, tele-connections, tipping points, thresholds and regime shifts. Based on an analysis of current model representations of Anthropocene dynamics, we identify ways to enhance the role of modeling tools to better help us understand Anthropocene dynamics and address sustainability issues arising from them. To explore sustainable futures (‘safe and operating spaces’), social processes and anthropogenic drivers of biophysical processes must be incorporated, to allow for a spectrum of potential impacts and responses at different societal levels. In this context, model development can play a major role in reconciling the different epistemologies of the disciplines that need to collaborate to capture changes in the functioning of socio-ecological systems. Feedbacks between system functioning and underlying endogenous drivers should be represented, rather than assuming the drivers to be exogenous to the modelled system or stationary in time and space. While global scale assessments are important, the global scale dynamics need to be connected to local realities and vice versa. The diversity of stakeholders and potential questions requires a diversification of models, avoiding the convergence towards single models that are able to answer a wide range of questions, but without sufficient specificity. The novel concept of the Anthropocene can help to develop innovative model representations and model architectures that are better suited to assist in designing sustainable solutions targeted at the users of the models and model results. © 2015 The Authors
英文关键词	Complex system models; Emergence; Feedbacks; Scenarios; Simulation; Socio-ecological systems
学科领域	Anthropocene; conceptual framework; Earth; ecological approach; environmental management; environmental policy; feedback mechanism; global perspective; methodology; modeling; numerical model; simulation; social impact; stakeholder; sustainability; teleconnection
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Anthropocene; conceptual framework; Earth; ecological approach; environmental management; environmental policy; feedback mechanism; global perspective; methodology; modeling; numerical model; simulation; social impact; stakeholder; sustainability; teleconnection
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117374
作者单位	Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, de Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, Netherlands; School of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom; School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, 900 S. Cady Mall, Tempe, AZ, United States; International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Lilla Frescativågen 4A, Stockholm, 11418, Sweden; Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-10691, Sweden; CSDMS/INSTAAR, U Colorado—Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, United States; Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Verburg P.H.,Dearing J.A.,Dyke J.G.,et al. Methods and approaches to modelling the Anthropocene[J],2016,39.
APA	Verburg P.H..,Dearing J.A..,Dyke J.G..,Leeuw S.V.D..,Seitzinger S..,...&Syvitski J..(2016).Methods and approaches to modelling the Anthropocene.Global Environmental Change,39.
MLA	Verburg P.H.,et al."Methods and approaches to modelling the Anthropocene".Global Environmental Change 39(2016).