气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: A new research agenda

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.017
	Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: A new research agenda
	Bai X.; van der Leeuw S.; O'Brien K.; Berkhout F.; Biermann F.; Brondizio E.S.; Cudennec C.; Dearing J.; Duraiappah A.; Glaser M.; Revkin A.; Steffen W.; Syvitski J.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	39
英文摘要	While the concept of the Anthropocene reflects the past and present nature, scale and magnitude of human impacts on the Earth System, its true significance lies in how it can be used to guide attitudes, choices, policies and actions that influence the future. Yet, to date much of the research on the Anthropocene has focused on interpreting past and present changes, while saying little about the future. Likewise, many futures studies have been insufficiently rooted in an understanding of past changes, in particular the long-term co-evolution of bio-physical and human systems. The Anthropocene perspective is one that encapsulates a world of intertwined drivers, complex dynamic structures, emergent phenomena and unintended consequences, manifest across different scales and within interlinked biophysical constraints and social conditions. In this paper we discuss the changing role of science and the theoretical, methodological and analytical challenges in considering futures of the Anthropocene. We present three broad groups of research questions on: (1) societal goals for the future; (2) major trends and dynamics that might favor or hinder them; (3) and factors that might propel or impede transformations towards desirable futures. Tackling these questions requires the development of novel approaches integrating natural and social sciences as well as the humanities beyond what is current today. We present three examples, one from each group of questions, illustrating how science might contribute to the identification of desirable and plausible futures and pave the way for transformations towards them. We argue that it is time for debates on the sustainability of the Anthropocene to focus on opportunities for realizing desirable and plausible futures. © 2015 The Authors
英文关键词	Anthropocene; Changing role of science; Plausible and desirable futures; Societal goals; Societal trend and dynamics; Transition and transformation
学科领域	Anthropocene; anthropogenic effect; coevolution; Earth; Earth science; future prospect; planning history; research work; social characteristics
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Anthropocene; anthropogenic effect; coevolution; Earth; Earth science; future prospect; planning history; research work; social characteristics
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117372
作者单位	Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Australia; ASU-SFI Center for Biosocial Complex Systems, Arizona State University, United States; Department of Sociology & Human Geography, University of Oslo, Norway; Department of Geography, King's College, London, United Kingdom; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Netherlands; Department of Anthropology, Anthropological Center for Training and Research on Global Environmental Change (ACT), Indiana University, United States; Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis, Indiana University, United States; Agrocampus Ouest, INRA, UMR1069 SAS, Rennes, France; Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom; UNESCO Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Education for Peace and Sustainable Development (UNESCO MGIEP), India; Leibniz Center for Tropical Marine Ecology (ZMT), Germany; Pace Academy for Applied Environmental Studies, Pace Unive...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bai X.,van der Leeuw S.,O'Brien K.,et al. Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: A new research agenda[J],2016,39.
APA	Bai X..,van der Leeuw S..,O'Brien K..,Berkhout F..,Biermann F..,...&Syvitski J..(2016).Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: A new research agenda.Global Environmental Change,39.
MLA	Bai X.,et al."Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: A new research agenda".Global Environmental Change 39(2016).