气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.012
	Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability
	Carrão H.; Naumann G.; Barbosa P.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	39
英文摘要	A global map of drought risk has been elaborated at the sub-national administrative level. The motivation for this study is the observation that little research and no concerted efforts have been made at the global level to provide a consistent and equitable drought risk management framework for multiple regions, population groups and economic sectors. Drought risk is assessed for the period 2000-2014 and is based on the product of three independent determinants: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Drought hazard is derived from a non-parametric analysis of historical precipitation deficits at the 0.5°; drought exposure is based on a non-parametric aggregation of gridded indicators of population and livestock densities, crop cover and water stress; and drought vulnerability is computed as the arithmetic composite of high level factors of social, economic and infrastructural indicators, collected at both the national and sub-national levels. The performance evaluation of the proposed models underlines their statistical robustness and emphasizes an empirical resemblance between the geographic patterns of potential drought impacts and previous results presented in the literature. Our findings support the idea that drought risk is driven by an exponential growth of regional exposure, while hazard and vulnerability exhibit a weaker relationship with the geographic distribution of risk values. Drought risk is lower for remote regions, such as tundras and tropical forests, and higher for populated areas and regions extensively exploited for crop production and livestock farming, such as South-Central Asia, Southeast of South America, Central Europe and Southeast of the United States. As climate change projections foresee an increase of drought frequency and intensity for these regions, then there is an aggravated risk for global food security and potential for civil conflict in the medium- to long-term. Since most agricultural regions show high infrastructural vulnerability to drought, then regional adaptation to climate change may begin through implementing and fostering the widespread use of irrigation and rainwater harvesting systems. In this context, reduction in drought risk may also benefit from diversifying regional economies on different sectors of activity and reducing the dependence of their GDP on agriculture. © 2016 The Authors.
英文关键词	Drought risk management; Exposure; Global; Hazard; Non-parametric composite indicators; Vulnerability
学科领域	adaptation; climate change; crop production; drought; estimation method; food security; geographical distribution; global perspective; Gross Domestic Product; livestock farming; natural hazard; rainwater; risk factor; tropical forest; tundra; vulnerability; water stress; Central Asia; Central Europe; South America; United States
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptation; climate change; crop production; drought; estimation method; food security; geographical distribution; global perspective; Gross Domestic Product; livestock farming; natural hazard; rainwater; risk factor; tropical forest; tundra; vulnerability; water stress; Central Asia; Central Europe; South America; United States
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117359
作者单位	European Commission (EC), Joint Research Centre (JRC), Via Enrico Fermi 2749, Ispra, VA, 21027, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Carrão H.,Naumann G.,Barbosa P.. Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability[J],2016,39.
APA	Carrão H.,Naumann G.,&Barbosa P..(2016).Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability.Global Environmental Change,39.
MLA	Carrão H.,et al."Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability".Global Environmental Change 39(2016).