气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Farmer perceptions of climate change: Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends, irrigation, and climate beliefs

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.002
	Farmer perceptions of climate change: Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends, irrigation, and climate beliefs
	Niles M.T.; Mueller N.D.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	39
英文摘要	How individuals perceive climate change is linked to whether individuals support climate policies and whether they alter their own climate-related behaviors, yet climate perceptions may be influenced by many factors beyond local shifts in weather. Infrastructure designed to control or regulate natural resources may serve as an important lens through which people experience climate, and thus may influence perceptions. Likewise, perceptions may be influenced by personal beliefs about climate change and whether it is human-induced. Here we examine farmer perceptions of historical climate change, how perceptions are related to observed trends in regional climate, how perceptions are related to the presence of irrigation infrastructure, and how perceptions are related to beliefs and concerns about climate change. We focus on the regions of Marlborough and Hawke's Bay in New Zealand, where irrigation is utilized on the majority of cropland. Data are obtained through analysis of historical climate records from local weather stations, interviews (n = 20), and a farmer survey (n = 490). Across both regions, no significant historical trends in annual precipitation and summer temperatures since 1980 are observed, but winter warming trends are significant at around 0.2-0.3 °C per decade. A large fraction of farmers perceived increases in annual rainfall despite instrumental records indicating no significant trends, a finding that may be related to greater perceived water availability associated with irrigation growth. A greater fraction of farmers perceived rainfall increases in Marlborough, where irrigation growth has been most substantial. We find those classes of farmers more likely to have irrigation were also significantly more likely to perceive an increase in annual rainfall. Furthermore, we demonstrate that perceptions of changing climate - regardless of their accuracy - are correlated with increased belief in climate change and an increased concern for future climate impacts. Those farmers that believe climate change is occurring and is human induced are more likely to perceive temperature increases than farmers who believe climate change is not occurring and is not human induced. These results suggest that perceptions are influenced by a variety of personal and environmental factors, including infrastructure, which may in turn alter decisions about climate adaptation. © 2016 The Author(s).
英文关键词	Agriculture; Beliefs; Global warming; Infrastructure; Irrigation; Perceptions
学科领域	air temperature; climate change; environmental policy; global warming; infrastructure; irrigation; perception; precipitation (climatology); proxy climate record; trend analysis; water availability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate change; environmental policy; global warming; infrastructure; irrigation; perception; precipitation (climatology); proxy climate record; trend analysis; water availability
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117351
作者单位	Department of Nutrition and Food Sciences, University of Vermont, United States; Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, United States; Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Niles M.T.,Mueller N.D.. Farmer perceptions of climate change: Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends, irrigation, and climate beliefs[J],2016,39.
APA	Niles M.T.,&Mueller N.D..(2016).Farmer perceptions of climate change: Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends, irrigation, and climate beliefs.Global Environmental Change,39.
MLA	Niles M.T.,et al."Farmer perceptions of climate change: Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends, irrigation, and climate beliefs".Global Environmental Change 39(2016).