气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004
	The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100
	KC S.; Lutz W.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	42
英文摘要	This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the human population not only by age and sex—as is conventionally done in demographic projections—but also by different levels of educational attainment the most fundamental aspects of human development and social change are being explicitly addressed through modeling the changing composition of populations by these three important individual characteristics. The scenarios have been defined in a collaborative effort of the international Integrated Assessment Modeling community with the medium scenario following that of a major new effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OEAW, WU) involving over 550 experts from around the world. As a result, in terms of total world population size the trajectories resulting from the five SSPs stay very close to each other until around 2030 and by the middle of the century already a visible differentiation appears with the range between the highest (SSP3) and the lowest (SSP1) trajectories spanning 1.5 billion. The range opens up much more with the SSP3 reaching 12.6 billion in 2100 and SSP1 falling to 6.9 billion which is lower than today's world population. © 2014 The Authors
英文关键词	Age structure; Country level; Education; Scenarios; Shared socioeconomic pathways; World population
学科领域	age structure; age-related difference; demographic survey; educational attainment; population size; scenario analysis; sex-related difference; social change; socioeconomic status
语种	英语
scopus关键词	age structure; age-related difference; demographic survey; educational attainment; population size; scenario analysis; sex-related difference; social change; socioeconomic status
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117306
作者单位	Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	KC S.,Lutz W.. The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100[J],2017,42.
APA	KC S.,&Lutz W..(2017).The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100.Global Environmental Change,42.
MLA	KC S.,et al."The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100".Global Environmental Change 42(2017).