气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004
	The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century
	O'Neill B.C.; Kriegler E.; Ebi K.L.; Kemp-Benedict E.; Riahi K.; Rothman D.S.; van Ruijven B.J.; van Vuuren D.P.; Birkmann J.; Kok K.; Levy M.; Solecki W.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	42
英文摘要	Long-term scenarios play an important role in research on global environmental change. The climate change research community is developing new scenarios integrating future changes in climate and society to investigate climate impacts as well as options for mitigation and adaptation. One component of these new scenarios is a set of alternative futures of societal development known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The conceptual framework for the design and use of the SSPs calls for the development of global pathways describing the future evolution of key aspects of society that would together imply a range of challenges for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Here we present one component of these pathways: the SSP narratives, a set of five qualitative descriptions of future changes in demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources. We describe the methods used to develop the narratives as well as how these pathways are hypothesized to produce particular combinations of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Development of the narratives drew on expert opinion to (1) identify key determinants of these challenges that were essential to incorporate in the narratives and (2) combine these elements in the narratives in a manner consistent with scholarship on their inter-relationships. The narratives are intended as a description of plausible future conditions at the level of large world regions that can serve as a basis for integrated scenarios of emissions and land use, as well as climate impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Adaptation; Climate change; Mitigation; Narratives; Scenarios; Shared socioeconomic pathways
学科领域	climate change; conceptual framework; demography; environmental planning; future prospect; global perspective; integrated approach; land use change; natural resource; scenario analysis; social development; socioeconomic survey; twenty first century; vulnerability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; conceptual framework; demography; environmental planning; future prospect; global perspective; integrated approach; land use change; natural resource; scenario analysis; social development; socioeconomic survey; twenty first century; vulnerability
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117305
作者单位	National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Stockholm Environment Institute, 15th Floor, Witthyakit Building, 254 Chulalongkorn University, Chulalongkorn Soi 64, Phyathai Road, Pathumwan, Bangkok, 10330, Thailand; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; Graz Univeristy of Technology, Graz, Austria; Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, 2201 South Gaylord Street, Denver, CO 80208-0500, United States; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Institute for Spatial and Regional Planning, University of Stuttgart, Pfaffenwaldring 7, 70569, Stuttgart, Germany;...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	O'Neill B.C.,Kriegler E.,Ebi K.L.,et al. The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century[J],2017,42.
APA	O'Neill B.C..,Kriegler E..,Ebi K.L..,Kemp-Benedict E..,Riahi K..,...&Solecki W..(2017).The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century.Global Environmental Change,42.
MLA	O'Neill B.C.,et al."The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century".Global Environmental Change 42(2017).