气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future growth patterns of world regions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.005
	Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach
	Leimbach M.; Kriegler E.; Roming N.; Schwanitz J.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	42
英文摘要	Global GDP projections for the 21st century are needed for the exploration of long-term global environmental problems, in particular climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions as well as climate change mitigation and adaption capacities strongly depend on growth of per capita income. However, long-term economic projections are highly uncertain. This paper provides five new long-term economic scenarios as part of the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) which represent a set of widely diverging narratives. A method of GDP scenario building is presented that is based on assumptions about technological progress, and human and physical capital formation as major drivers of long-term GDP per capita growth. The impact of these drivers differs significantly between different shared socio-economic pathways and is traced back to the underlying narratives and the associated population and education scenarios. In a highly fragmented world, technological and knowledge spillovers are low. Hence, the growth impact of technological progress and human capital is comparatively low, and per capita income diverges between world regions. These factors play a much larger role in globalization scenarios, leading to higher economic growth and stronger convergence between world regions. At the global average, per capita GDP is projected to grow annually in a range between 1.0% (SSP3) and 2.8% (SSP5) from 2010 to 2100. While this covers a large portion of variety in future global economic growth projections, plausible lower and higher growth projections may still be conceivable. The GDP projections are put into the context of historic patterns of economic growth (stylized facts), and their sensitivity to key assumptions is explored. © 2016 The Authors
英文关键词	Convergence; Economic growth; GDP scenario
学科领域	capital formation; climate change; convergence; economic analysis; educational development; globalization; greenhouse gas; Gross Domestic Product; growth rate; human capital; knowledge; socioeconomic conditions
语种	英语
scopus关键词	capital formation; climate change; convergence; economic analysis; educational development; globalization; greenhouse gas; Gross Domestic Product; growth rate; human capital; knowledge; socioeconomic conditions
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117304
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, D-14412, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Leimbach M.,Kriegler E.,Roming N.,等. Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach[J],2017,42.
APA	Leimbach M.,Kriegler E.,Roming N.,&Schwanitz J..(2017).Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach.Global Environmental Change,42.
MLA	Leimbach M.,et al."Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach".Global Environmental Change 42(2017).