气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.008
	Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
	Jiang L.; O'Neill B.C.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	42
英文摘要	The new scenario process for climate change research includes the creation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) describing alternative societal development trends over the coming decades. Urbanization is a key aspect of development that is relevant to studies of mitigation, adaptation, and impacts. Incorporating urbanization into the SSPs requires a consistent set of global urbanization projections that cover long time horizons and span a full range of uncertainty. Existing urbanization projections do not meet these needs, in particular providing only a single scenario over the next few decades, a period during which urbanization is likely to be highly dynamic in many countries. We present here a new, long-term, global set of urbanization projections at country level that cover a plausible range of uncertainty. We create SSP-specific projections by choosing urbanization outcomes consistent with each SSP narrative. Results show that the world continues to urbanize in each of the SSPs but outcomes differ widely across them, with urbanization reaching 60%, 79%, and 92% by the end of century in SSP3, SSP2, and SSP1/SSP4/SSP5, respectively. The degree of convergence in urbanization across countries also differs substantially, with largely convergent outcomes by the end of the century in SSP1 and SSP5 and persistent diversity in SSP3. This set of global, country-specific projections produces urbanization pathways that are typical of regions in different stages of urbanization and development levels, and can be extended to further elaborate assumptions about the styles of urban growth and spatial distributions of urban people and land cover occurring in each SSP. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Long term; Socioeconomic scenarios; Uncertainty; Urbanization projections
学科领域	adaptive management; climate change; convergence; global perspective; land cover; nature-society relations; research work; scenario analysis; social development; socioeconomic conditions; uncertainty analysis; urban growth; urbanization
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; climate change; convergence; global perspective; land cover; nature-society relations; research work; scenario analysis; social development; socioeconomic conditions; uncertainty analysis; urban growth; urbanization
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117302
作者单位	National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jiang L.,O'Neill B.C.. Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J],2017,42.
APA	Jiang L.,&O'Neill B.C..(2017).Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.Global Environmental Change,42.
MLA	Jiang L.,et al."Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways".Global Environmental Change 42(2017).