气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004
	The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
	Fricko O.; Havlik P.; Rogelj J.; Klimont Z.; Gusti M.; Johnson N.; Kolp P.; Strubegger M.; Valin H.; Amann M.; Ermolieva T.; Forsell N.; Herrero M.; Heyes C.; Kindermann G.; Krey V.; McCollum D.L.; Obersteiner M.; Pachauri S.; Rao S.; Schmid E.; Schoepp W.; Riahi K.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	42
英文摘要	Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or ‘marker’, implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework. We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4 °C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global-mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2 °C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century. © 2016 The Authors
英文关键词	Adaptation; Climate change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Integrated assessment modeling; Mitigation; Shared socioeconomic pathways; SSP
学科领域	assessment method; climate change; emission; environmental planning; environmental policy; greenhouse gas; integrated approach; numerical model; policy implementation; scenario analysis; twenty first century
语种	英语
scopus关键词	assessment method; climate change; emission; environmental planning; environmental policy; greenhouse gas; integrated approach; numerical model; policy implementation; scenario analysis; twenty first century
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117297
作者单位	International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria; Lviv Polytechnic National University, 12 Bandera street, Lviv, 79013, Ukraine; CSIRO, 306 Carmody Road, St. Lucia, Australia; University of Natural Resource and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Gregor-Mendel-Straße 33, Vienna, 1180, Austria; Graz University of Technology, Inffeldgasse, Graz, 8010, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fricko O.,Havlik P.,Rogelj J.,et al. The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century[J],2017,42.
APA	Fricko O..,Havlik P..,Rogelj J..,Klimont Z..,Gusti M..,...&Riahi K..(2017).The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century.Global Environmental Change,42.
MLA	Fricko O.,et al."The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century".Global Environmental Change 42(2017).