气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.006
	Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives
	Bauer N.; Calvin K.; Emmerling J.; Fricko O.; Fujimori S.; Hilaire J.; Eom J.; Krey V.; Kriegler E.; Mouratiadou I.; Sytze de Boer H.; van den Berg M.; Carrara S.; Daioglou V.; Drouet L.; Edmonds J.E.; Gernaat D.; Havlik P.; Johnson N.; Klein D.; Kyle P.; Marangoni G.; Masui T.; Pietzcker R.C.; Strubegger M.; Wise M.; Riahi K.; van Vuuren D.P.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	42
英文摘要	Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO2-emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. © 2016 The Authors
英文关键词	Energy demand; Energy resources; Energy supply; Energy system; Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs); Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)
学科领域	carbon emission; climate change; consumption behavior; demand analysis; economic activity; emission control; energy budget; energy policy; energy resource; energy use; fossil fuel; integrated approach; resource availability; socioeconomic conditions; strategic approach; sustainability; twenty first century
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon emission; climate change; consumption behavior; demand analysis; economic activity; emission control; energy budget; energy policy; energy resource; energy use; fossil fuel; integrated approach; resource availability; socioeconomic conditions; strategic approach; sustainability; twenty first century
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117296
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for CIimate Impact Research (PIK), Germany; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)MD, United States; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Italy; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo dei Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Italy; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria; National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan; Mercator Research Institute for Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Germany; Graduate School of Green Growth, KAIST Business School, South Korea; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Netherlands; Copernicus institute for sustainable development, Utrecht University, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bauer N.,Calvin K.,Emmerling J.,等. Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives[J],2017,42.
APA	Bauer N..,Calvin K..,Emmerling J..,Fricko O..,Fujimori S..,...&van Vuuren D.P..(2017).Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives.Global Environmental Change,42.
MLA	Bauer N.,et al."Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives".Global Environmental Change 42(2017).