气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009
	The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
	Riahi K.; van Vuuren D.P.; Kriegler E.; Edmonds J.; O'Neill B.C.; Fujimori S.; Bauer N.; Calvin K.; Dellink R.; Fricko O.; Lutz W.; Popp A.; Cuaresma J.C.; KC S.; Leimbach M.; Jiang L.; Kram T.; Rao S.; Emmerling J.; Ebi K.; Hasegawa T.; Havlik P.; Humpenöder F.; Da Silva L.A.; Smith S.; Stehfest E.; Bosetti V.; Eom J.; Gernaat D.; Masui T.; Rogelj J.; Strefler J.; Drouet L.; Krey V.; Luderer G.; Harmsen M.; Takahashi K.; Baumstark L.; Doelman J.C.; Kainuma M.; Klimont Z.; Marangoni G.; Lotze-Campen H.; Obersteiner M.; Tabeau A.; Tavoni M.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	42
英文摘要	This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6). © 2017 The Authors
英文关键词	Adaptation; Climate change; Community scenarios; Mitigation; RCP; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; SSP
学科领域	carbon emission; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; demography; emission; environmental economics; fossil fuel; greenhouse gas; integrated approach; land use; land use change; scenario analysis; sustainable development; twenty first century
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon emission; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; demography; emission; environmental economics; fossil fuel; greenhouse gas; integrated approach; land use; land use change; scenario analysis; sustainable development; twenty first century
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117295
作者单位	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A31, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland-College Park, College Park, MD, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, United States; National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris, France; Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy; School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, United States; Bocconi University, Department of Economics, Italy; KAIST College of Business, Seoul, South Korea; Landbouw Economisch...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Riahi K.,van Vuuren D.P.,Kriegler E.,et al. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview[J],2017,42.
APA	Riahi K..,van Vuuren D.P..,Kriegler E..,Edmonds J..,O'Neill B.C..,...&Tavoni M..(2017).The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview.Global Environmental Change,42.
MLA	Riahi K.,et al."The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview".Global Environmental Change 42(2017).