气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002
	Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
	Popp A.; Calvin K.; Fujimori S.; Havlik P.; Humpenöder F.; Stehfest E.; Bodirsky B.L.; Dietrich J.P.; Doelmann J.C.; Gusti M.; Hasegawa T.; Kyle P.; Obersteiner M.; Tabeau A.; Takahashi K.; Valin H.; Waldhoff S.; Weindl I.; Wise M.; Kriegler E.; Lotze-Campen H.; Fricko O.; Riahi K.; Vuuren D.P.V.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	42
英文摘要	In the future, the land system will be facing new intersecting challenges. While food demand, especially for resource-intensive livestock based commodities, is expected to increase, the terrestrial system has large potentials for climate change mitigation through improved agricultural management, providing biomass for bioenergy, and conserving or even enhancing carbon stocks of ecosystems. However, uncertainties in future socio-economic land use drivers may result in very different land-use dynamics and consequences for land-based ecosystem services. This is the first study with a systematic interpretation of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) in terms of possible land-use changes and their consequences for the agricultural system, food provision and prices as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, five alternative Integrated Assessment Models with distinctive land-use modules have been used for the translation of the SSP narratives into quantitative projections. The model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures with global agricultural land of 4900 mio ha in 2005 decreasing by 743 mio ha until 2100 at the lower (SSP1) and increasing by 1080 mio ha (SSP3) at the upper end. Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land use change, as a direct outcome of these diverse land-use dynamics, and agricultural production systems differ strongly across SSPs (e.g. cumulative land use change emissions between 2005 and 2100 range from −54 to 402 Gt CO2). The inclusion of land-based mitigation efforts, particularly those in the most ambitious mitigation scenarios, further broadens the range of potential land futures and can strongly affect greenhouse gas dynamics and food prices. In general, it can be concluded that low demand for agricultural commodities, rapid growth in agricultural productivity and globalized trade, all most pronounced in a SSP1 world, have the potential to enhance the extent of natural ecosystems, lead to lowest greenhouse gas emissions from the land system and decrease food prices over time. The SSP-based land use pathways presented in this paper aim at supporting future climate research and provide the basis for further regional integrated assessments, biodiversity research and climate impact analysis. © 2016 The Authors
英文关键词	Emissions; Food prices; Integrated assessment; Land use; Mitigation; Scenarios; SSP
学科领域	agricultural land; agricultural management; agricultural production; assessment method; climate change; climate effect; demand analysis; ecosystem service; emission; greenhouse gas; integrated approach; land use change; land use planning; mitigation; price dynamics; scenario analysis; socioeconomic indicator
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agricultural land; agricultural management; agricultural production; assessment method; climate change; climate effect; demand analysis; ecosystem service; emission; greenhouse gas; integrated approach; land use change; land use planning; mitigation; price dynamics; scenario analysis; socioeconomic indicator
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117287
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland–College Park, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, United States; National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Postbus 30314, The Hague, 2500 GH, Netherlands; Graz University of Technology, Austria; Wageningen Economic Research part of Wageningen University & Research, Netherlands; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, St. Lucia, Australia; Lviv Polytechnic National University, 12 Bandera street, Lviv, 79013, Ukraine; Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering and Bioeconomy (ATB), Max-Eyth-Allee 100, Potsdam, 14469, Germany; Humboldt-University of Berlin, Berlin, 10099, Germany; Copernicus Institute for Sustainabl...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Popp A.,Calvin K.,Fujimori S.,et al. Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways[J],2017,42.
APA	Popp A..,Calvin K..,Fujimori S..,Havlik P..,Humpenöder F..,...&Vuuren D.P.V..(2017).Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways.Global Environmental Change,42.
MLA	Popp A.,et al."Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways".Global Environmental Change 42(2017).