气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Understanding scientists’ computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.007
	Understanding scientists’ computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models
	Mayer L.A.; Loa K.; Cwik B.; Tuana N.; Keller K.; Gonnerman C.; Parker A.M.; Lempert R.J.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	42
英文摘要	When developing computational models to analyze the tradeoffs between climate risk management strategies (i.e., mitigation, adaptation, or geoengineering), scientists make explicit and implicit decisions that are influenced by their beliefs, values and preferences. Model descriptions typically include only the explicit decisions and are silent on value judgments that may explain these decisions. Eliciting scientists’ mental models, a systematic approach to determining how they think about climate risk management, can help to gain a clearer understanding of their modeling decisions. In order to identify and represent the role of values, beliefs and preferences on decisions, we used an augmented mental models research approach, namely values-informed mental models (ViMM). We conducted and qualitatively analyzed interviews with eleven climate risk management scientists. Our results suggest that these scientists use a similar decision framework to each other to think about modeling climate risk management tradeoffs, including eight specific decisions ranging from defining the model objectives to evaluating the model's results. The influence of values on these decisions varied between our scientists and between the specific decisions. For instance, scientists invoked ethical values (e.g., concerns about human welfare) when defining objectives, but epistemic values (e.g., concerns about model consistency) were more influential when evaluating model results. ViMM can (i) enable insights that can inform the design of new computational models and (ii) make value judgments explicit and more inclusive of relevant values. This transparency can help model users to better discern the relevance of model results to their own decision framing and concerns. © 2016
英文关键词	Climate change; Decision making under uncertainty; Risk management; Values-informed mental models
学科领域	carbon sequestration; climate change; computer simulation; decision making; design; environmental assessment; model validation; qualitative analysis; questionnaire survey; risk assessment; transparency; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon sequestration; climate change; computer simulation; decision making; design; environmental assessment; model validation; qualitative analysis; questionnaire survey; risk assessment; transparency; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117284
作者单位	RAND Corporation, United States; Philosophy and University Studies, Portland State University, United States; Department of Philosophy, Penn State University, United States; Department of Geosciences, Penn State University, United States; Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, United States; Department of Philosophy, University of Southern Indiana, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mayer L.A.,Loa K.,Cwik B.,等. Understanding scientists’ computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models[J],2017,42.
APA	Mayer L.A..,Loa K..,Cwik B..,Tuana N..,Keller K..,...&Lempert R.J..(2017).Understanding scientists’ computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models.Global Environmental Change,42.
MLA	Mayer L.A.,et al."Understanding scientists’ computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models".Global Environmental Change 42(2017).