气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Unleashing expert judgment in assessment

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.02.005
	Unleashing expert judgment in assessment
	Mach K.J.; Mastrandrea M.D.; Freeman P.T.; Field C.B.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	44
英文摘要	Assessment evaluates accumulated knowledge and its limits. It informs and ideally empowers decisions and actions on complex, contested issues with persistent uncertainties. Applying rigorous expert judgment is an important dimension of assessment. Here we evaluate advances and challenges in approaches to expert judgment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). We find that revised guidance for author teams improved the development of balanced judgments on scientific evidence across disciplines. In particular, expert judgments underpinning conclusions are more extensively, transparently, and consistently communicated: degree-of-certainty terms are more abundant in AR5 policymaker summaries; wider ranges of possible outcomes are presented with greater inclusion of lower-certainty, decision-relevant findings; and expert judgments supporting conclusions are more comparable across working groups. But challenges in developing and communicating assessment conclusions persist, especially for findings with substantial uncertainties and for subjective aspects of judgments. Based on our evaluations and AR5 lessons learned, we propose a simpler, more rigorous framework for developing and communicating expert judgments in environmental assessment. We also describe practices for reducing expert-judgment biases, for advancing integration of evidence and expert judgment, and for addressing subjective dimensions of expert opinion directly and proactively. © 2017 The Author(s)
英文关键词	Assessment; Expert judgment; Fifth Assessment Report; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Uncertainties
学科领域	decision making; environmental impact assessment; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; organizational framework; persistence; policy making; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	decision making; environmental impact assessment; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; organizational framework; persistence; policy making; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117262
作者单位	Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305, United States; Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, 260 Panama St., Stanford, CA 94305, United States; Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mach K.J.,Mastrandrea M.D.,Freeman P.T.,et al. Unleashing expert judgment in assessment[J],2017,44.
APA	Mach K.J.,Mastrandrea M.D.,Freeman P.T.,&Field C.B..(2017).Unleashing expert judgment in assessment.Global Environmental Change,44.
MLA	Mach K.J.,et al."Unleashing expert judgment in assessment".Global Environmental Change 44(2017).