气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The El Niño Southern Oscillation and economic growth in the developing world

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.05.007
	The El Niño Southern Oscillation and economic growth in the developing world
	Smith S.C.; Ubilava D.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	45
英文摘要	The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects weather around the globe, particularly in regions where developing countries typically lie. These countries are known to be most vulnerable to weather anomalies, and ENSO thereby has the potential to influence their economic growth. In this study, we investigate the effect of ENSO on economic growth in 69 developing countries, using annual data from 1961 to 2015. We find regime-dependent nonlinearity in the growth response to ENSO shocks. An El Niño event, equivalent to a 1 °C deviation in sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific, results in one-to-two percent annual growth reduction during the El Niño regime, but the effect is absent during the La Niña regime. In addition, we find that the effect of El Niño is twice-as-large in the tropics relative to temperate areas, and particularly pronounced in Africa and Asia-Pacific. The findings of this study have two important implications. From the modeling standpoint, we find that the growth impacts of ENSO shocks are nonlinear, and vary across regions and climatic zones. From the policy-making standpoint, our findings suggest opportunities for short-term adjustments to climate shock management and international aid programs, depending on the existing state and the intermediate-term patterns of the ENSO cycle. © 2017
英文关键词	Climate shocks; Developing countries; Economic growth; El Niño Southern Oscillation; Nonlinear effect
学科领域	developing world; economic growth; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; international aid; nature-society relations; nonlinearity; policy making; sea surface temperature; Africa; Asia; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
语种	英语
scopus关键词	developing world; economic growth; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; international aid; nature-society relations; nonlinearity; policy making; sea surface temperature; Africa; Asia; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117235
作者单位	Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, University of Sydney, Australia; Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Australia; School of Economics, University of Sydney, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Smith S.C.,Ubilava D.. The El Niño Southern Oscillation and economic growth in the developing world[J],2017,45.
APA	Smith S.C.,&Ubilava D..(2017).The El Niño Southern Oscillation and economic growth in the developing world.Global Environmental Change,45.
MLA	Smith S.C.,et al."The El Niño Southern Oscillation and economic growth in the developing world".Global Environmental Change 45(2017).