气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modelling social influence and cultural variation in global low-carbon vehicle transitions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.09.008
	Modelling social influence and cultural variation in global low-carbon vehicle transitions
	Pettifor H.; Wilson C.; McCollum D.; Edelenbosch O.Y.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	47
英文摘要	We present a unique and transparent approach for incorporating social influence effects into global integrated assessment models used to analyse climate change mitigation. We draw conceptually on Rogers (2003) diffusion of innovations, introducing heterogeneous and interconnected consumers who vary in their aversion to new technologies. Focussing on vehicle choice, we conduct novel empirical research to parameterise consumer risk aversion and how this is shaped by social and cultural influences. We find robust evidence for social influence effects, and variation between countries as a function of cultural differences. We then formulate an approach to modelling social influence which is implementable in both simulation and optimisation-type models. We use two global integrated assessment models (IMAGE and MESSAGE) to analyse four scenarios that introduce social influence and cultural differences between regions. These scenarios allow us to explore the interactions between consumer preferences and social influence. We find that incorporating social influence effects into global models accelerates the early deployment of electric vehicles and stimulates more widespread deployment across adopter groups. Incorporating cultural variation leads to significant differences in deployment between culturally divergent regions such as the USA and China. Our analysis significantly extends the ability of global integrated assessment models to provide policy-relevant analysis grounded in real world processes. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	AFV; Behavioural realism; Social influence; Vehicle choice
学科领域	assessment method; climate change; cultural change; diffusion; global climate; heterogeneity; innovation; mitigation; optimization; parameterization; research work; social impact; transport vehicle; China; United States
语种	英语
scopus关键词	assessment method; climate change; cultural change; diffusion; global climate; heterogeneity; innovation; mitigation; optimization; parameterization; research work; social impact; transport vehicle; China; United States
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117211
作者单位	Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom; Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenberg, Austria; PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pettifor H.,Wilson C.,McCollum D.,et al. Modelling social influence and cultural variation in global low-carbon vehicle transitions[J],2017,47.
APA	Pettifor H.,Wilson C.,McCollum D.,&Edelenbosch O.Y..(2017).Modelling social influence and cultural variation in global low-carbon vehicle transitions.Global Environmental Change,47.
MLA	Pettifor H.,et al."Modelling social influence and cultural variation in global low-carbon vehicle transitions".Global Environmental Change 47(2017).