气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Greedy or needy? Land use and climate impacts of food in 2050 under different livestock futures

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.09.001
	Greedy or needy? Land use and climate impacts of food in 2050 under different livestock futures
	Röös E.; Bajželj B.; Smith P.; Patel M.; Little D.; Garnett T.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	47
英文摘要	Both supply and demand side changes are necessary to achieve a sustainable food system. However, the weight accorded to these depends on one's view of what the priority goals are for the food system and the extent to which production systems versus consumption patterns are open to change. Some stakeholders see the problem as one of ‘not enough food’ and focus on the need to sustainably increase supply, while others consider the resource demanding and ‘greedy’ consumption patterns of the Western world as the main problem and emphasize the need to shift diets. In this study global land use and greenhouse gas emissions are estimated for a set of scenarios, building on four ‘livestock futures’ reflecting these different perspectives. These scenarios are: further intensification of livestock systems; a transition to plant-based eating; a move towards artificial meat and dairy; and a future in which livestock production is restricted to the use of ‘ecological leftovers’ i.e. grass from pastures, food waste and food and agricultural byproducts. Two dietary variants for each scenario are modelled: 1) a projected diet following current trends and 2) a healthy diet with more fruits and vegetables and fewer animal products, vegetable oils and sugar. Livestock production in all scenarios (except the baseline scenario) was assumed to intensify to current levels of intensive production in North-Western Europe. For each scenario, several variant assumptions about yield increases and waste reductions were modelled. Results show that without improvements in crop productivity or reductions on today's waste levels available cropland will only suffice if production of all protein currently supplied by animal foods is replaced by (hypothetical) artificial variants not requiring any land. With livestock intensities corresponding to current ones in North-Western Europe and with yield gaps closed by 50% and waste reduced by 50%, available cropland will suffice for all scenarios that include a reduction of animal products and/or a transition to poultry or aquaculture. However, in the scenario based on an extrapolation of current consumption patterns (animal product amounts and types consumed in proportions corresponding to the current average consumption in different world regions) and with livestock production based on feed from cropland, available cropland will not be enough. The scenario that makes use of pastures for ruminant production and food waste for pigs, uses considerably less cropland and could provide 40–56 kg per capita per year of red meat. However, such a livestock future would not reduce GHG emissions from agriculture on current levels. This study confirms previous research that to achieve a sustainable food future, action is needed on all fronts; improved supply and reduced demand and waste. © 2017 The Authors
英文关键词	Climate; Dietary change; Food; Land use; Mitigation; Protein
学科领域	agricultural emission; agricultural practice; climate effect; consumption behavior; diet; food product; food security; food waste; future prospect; greenhouse gas; land use; livestock; livestock farming; mitigation; poultry; production system; protein; stakeholder; sustainable development; Western world; Western Europe; Animalia; Suidae
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agricultural emission; agricultural practice; climate effect; consumption behavior; diet; food product; food security; food waste; future prospect; greenhouse gas; land use; livestock; livestock farming; mitigation; poultry; production system; protein; stakeholder; sustainable development; Western world; Western Europe; Animalia; Suidae
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117203
作者单位	Department of Energy and Technology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lennart Hjelms väg, Uppsala, 9 750 07, Sweden; Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom; Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences and ClimateXChange, University of Aberdeen, United Kingdom; Department of Animal Nutrition and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden; Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, United Kingdom; Food Climate Research Network, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Röös E.,Bajželj B.,Smith P.,et al. Greedy or needy? Land use and climate impacts of food in 2050 under different livestock futures[J],2017,47.
APA	Röös E.,Bajželj B.,Smith P.,Patel M.,Little D.,&Garnett T..(2017).Greedy or needy? Land use and climate impacts of food in 2050 under different livestock futures.Global Environmental Change,47.
MLA	Röös E.,et al."Greedy or needy? Land use and climate impacts of food in 2050 under different livestock futures".Global Environmental Change 47(2017).