气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multidimensional stress test for hydropower investments facing climate, geophysical and financial uncertainty

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.013
	Multidimensional stress test for hydropower investments facing climate, geophysical and financial uncertainty
	Ray P.A.; Bonzanigo L.; Wi S.; Yang Y.-C.E.; Karki P.; García L.E.; Rodriguez D.J.; Brown C.M.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0959-3780
起始页码	168
结束页码	181
卷号	48
英文摘要	Investors, developers, policy makers and engineers are rightly concerned about the potential effects of climate change on the future performance of hydropower investments. Hydroelectricity offers potentially low greenhouse-gas emission, renewable energy and reliable energy storage. However, hydroelectricity developments are large, complicated projects and possibly critically vulnerable to changes in climate and other assumptions related to future uncertainties. This paper presents a general assessment approach for evaluating the resilience of hydroelectricity projects to uncertainty in climate and other risk factors (e.g., financial, natural hazard). The process uses a decision analytic framework based on a decision scaling approach, which combines scenario neutral analysis and vulnerability-specific probability assessment. The technical evaluation process involves identification of project objectives, specification of uncertain factors, multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis, and data mining to identify vulnerability-specific scenarios and vulnerability-specific estimations of risk. The process is demonstrated with an application to a proposed hydropower facility on the Arun River in Nepal. The findings of the case study illustrate an example in which climate change is not the critical future uncertainty, and consequently highlight the importance of considering multiple uncertainties in combination. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Climate change adaptation; Himalayas; Hydropower; Nepal; Resilience; Water resources
学科领域	climate change; data mining; geophysics; hydroelectric power plant; investment; probability; renewable resource; risk factor; uncertainty analysis; water resource; Arun River; Nepal
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; data mining; geophysics; hydroelectric power plant; investment; probability; renewable resource; risk factor; uncertainty analysis; water resource; Arun River; Nepal
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117184
作者单位	Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Cincinnati, 601 Engineering Research Center, Cincinnati, OH 45221-0012, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts, 130 Natural Resources Road, Amherst, MA 01003, United States; The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lehigh University, Fritz Engineering Laboratory, 13 East Packer Ave., Bethlehem, PA 18015, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ray P.A.,Bonzanigo L.,Wi S.,et al. Multidimensional stress test for hydropower investments facing climate, geophysical and financial uncertainty[J],2018,48.
APA	Ray P.A..,Bonzanigo L..,Wi S..,Yang Y.-C.E..,Karki P..,...&Brown C.M..(2018).Multidimensional stress test for hydropower investments facing climate, geophysical and financial uncertainty.Global Environmental change,48.
MLA	Ray P.A.,et al."Multidimensional stress test for hydropower investments facing climate, geophysical and financial uncertainty".Global Environmental change 48(2018).