气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios to expert projections

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.03.009
	Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios to expert projections
	van Sluisveld M.A.E.; Harmsen M.J.H.M.; van Vuuren D.P.; Bosetti V.; Wilson C.; van der Zwaan B.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0959-3780
起始页码	201
结束页码	211
卷号	50
英文摘要	Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are computer-based instruments used to assess the implications of human activity on the human and earth system. They are simultaneously also used to explore possible response strategies to climate change. As IAMs operate simplified representations of real-world processes within their model structures, they have been frequently criticised to insufficiently represent the opportunities and challenges in future energy systems over time. To test whether projections by IAMs diverge in systematic ways from projections made by technology experts we elicited expert opinion on prospective change for two indicators and compared these with the outcomes of IAM studies. We specifically focused on five (energy) technology families (solar, wind, biomass, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage or CCS) and compared the considered implications of the presence or absence of climate policy on the growth and diffusion of these technologies over the short (2030) to medium (2050) term. IAMs and experts were found to be in relatively high agreement on system change in a business-as-usual scenario, albeit with significant differences in the estimated magnitude of technology deployment over time. Under stringent climate policy assumptions, such as the internationally agreed upon objective to limit global mean temperature increase to no more than 2 °C, we found that the differences in estimated magnitudes became smaller for some technologies and larger for others. Compared to experts, IAM simulations projected a greater reliance on nuclear power and CCS to meet a 2 °C climate target. In contrast, experts projected a stronger growth in renewable energy technologies, particularly solar power. We close by discussing several factors that are considered influential to the alignment of the IAM and expert perspectives in this study. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	2 degrees; Climate change; Expert elicitation; Integrated assessment; Technology diffusion
学科领域	alternative energy; climate change; environmental policy; expert system; human activity; integrated approach; nuclear power; solar power; technology diffusion
语种	英语
scopus关键词	alternative energy; climate change; environmental policy; expert system; human activity; integrated approach; nuclear power; solar power; technology diffusion
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117139
作者单位	Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands; Economic Department, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Policy Studies, Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Amsterdam, Netherlands; Faculty of Science (HIMS), University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, Bologna, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van Sluisveld M.A.E.,Harmsen M.J.H.M.,van Vuuren D.P.,等. Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios to expert projections[J],2018,50.
APA	van Sluisveld M.A.E.,Harmsen M.J.H.M.,van Vuuren D.P.,Bosetti V.,Wilson C.,&van der Zwaan B..(2018).Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios to expert projections.Global Environmental change,50.
MLA	van Sluisveld M.A.E.,et al."Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios to expert projections".Global Environmental change 50(2018).