气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Meeting global land restoration and protection targets: What would the world look like in 2050?

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.002
	Meeting global land restoration and protection targets: What would the world look like in 2050?
	Wolff S.; Schrammeijer E.A.; Schulp C.J.E.; Verburg P.H.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0959-3780
起始页码	259
结束页码	272
卷号	52
英文摘要	Land restoration has received increased attention recently as a tool to counteract negative externalities of unsustainable land management on human well-being. This is reflected in targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the United Nations Framework of the Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). However, the implications of these targets for land use, especially considering their potential conflict with growing food production demands, are largely unexplored. We study the potential and aggregated consequences of meeting these targets on land cover and land system change. We do so by analyzing targets originating from these global commitments towards land restoration and protection and implement them in a global land system change model. We compare this Restoration and Protection scenario with simulation results of two plausible pathways of socio-economic development in the absence of these targets, following the Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) storylines. We find that meeting global land restoration and protection targets would increase global tree cover by 4 million km², increasing forest carbon stocks by 50 Gt and protecting 28% of the terrestrial area with the highest value of both biodiversity and carbon storage. Gains in tree cover and natural land systems would cause a contraction of crop, pasture- and bare land. This results in further cropland intensification and the expansion of land systems that are combining land use demands in mosaics of forest and agriculture. Without these targets, land system architecture tends to become more specialized, while many carbon and biodiversity hotspots, such as in the Americas, India, and Indonesia would be lost. Grassland-agriculture mosaics were threatened by land use change under all scenarios, requiring greater consideration in research and environmental policy. Our results emphasize the need for targeted land management in line with the analyzed policy targets if global restoration and protection targets are to be achieved. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Ecosystem services demand; Land change modelling; Land restoration; Scenarios; Sustainable development goals
学科领域	biodiversity; carbon sequestration; environmental protection; environmental restoration; land cover; land management; land use change; simulation; sustainable development; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; Central America; India; Indonesia; North America; South America
语种	英语
scopus关键词	biodiversity; carbon sequestration; environmental protection; environmental restoration; land cover; land management; land use change; simulation; sustainable development; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; Central America; India; Indonesia; North America; South America
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117097
作者单位	Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, HV 1081, Netherlands; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research, WSL Zürcherstrasse 111, Birmensdorf, CH-8903, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wolff S.,Schrammeijer E.A.,Schulp C.J.E.,et al. Meeting global land restoration and protection targets: What would the world look like in 2050?[J],2018,52.
APA	Wolff S.,Schrammeijer E.A.,Schulp C.J.E.,&Verburg P.H..(2018).Meeting global land restoration and protection targets: What would the world look like in 2050?.Global Environmental change,52.
MLA	Wolff S.,et al."Meeting global land restoration and protection targets: What would the world look like in 2050?".Global Environmental change 52(2018).